elbowrivercasino

0x938e4c...42d242

Smart Score

Win Rate

50.0%

Total P&L

-$11

Trade Count

229

Sharpe Ratio

1.05

Sortino Ratio

8.61

Max Drawdown

320.4%

ROI

-1.3%

Profit Factor

0.70

Kelly Fraction

0.000

R² (Curve Fit)

—

Smart Score

025.8/100100

Recent Trades

Market	Side	Price	Size	Time
Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 9, 2026?	BUY	3.9¢	10	Mar 5
Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 19, 2026?	BUY	1.1¢	90.909	Mar 5
Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 18, 2026?	BUY	1.1¢	90.909	Mar 5
Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 5, 2026?	SELL	80.0¢	4.24	Mar 5
Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 5, 2026?	BUY	67.0¢	4.242	Mar 5
Will Iran strike Israel on March 5?	SELL	70.0¢	5	Mar 5
Will Iran strike Israel on March 5?	BUY	63.0¢	5	Mar 5
US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 31?	SELL	52.0¢	6.06	Mar 5
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	BUY	20.0¢	15	Mar 4
DeepSeek V4 released by March 31?	SELL	28.0¢	10	Mar 4
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	BUY	20.0¢	30	Mar 4
Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7?	SELL	82.0¢	5	Mar 4
US strikes Iraq by March 7?	SELL	40.0¢	5	Mar 4
US strikes Iraq by March 7?	BUY	40.0¢	5	Mar 4
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	BUY	20.0¢	15	Mar 4
US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31?	SELL	37.0¢	2.5	Mar 4
US strikes Iraq by March 7?	SELL	67.0¢	5	Mar 4
US strikes Iraq by March 7?	BUY	75.0¢	5	Mar 4
US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31?	BUY	40.0¢	2.5	Mar 4
US strikes Iraq by March 7?	SELL	18.0¢	14.93	Mar 4

Odds DistributionBalanced / Mid-Range

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

← Long ShotsSafe Bets →

Quantitative Edge Profile

Developing25.8

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)1.42

Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)23.5%

Win Consistency47.4%

Profit Factor0.67

Drawdown Resilience0.54

Conviction Sizing (Kelly)0.54

Weekly Sharpe est.0.41

Trading Activity229 trades · 27 active days