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PMPJoel

PMPJoel

0x58f3d1...2f4956
Smart Score
19
Win Rate
28.8%
Total P&L
-$68
Trade Count
96
Sharpe Ratio
0.25
Sortino Ratio
4.54
Max Drawdown
695.4%
ROI
-2.8%
Profit Factor
0.88
Kelly Fraction
0.000
R² (Curve Fit)
—
Smart Score
019.3/100100

Recent Trades

MarketSidePriceSizeTime
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?BUY20.0¢75Mar 5
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?BUY38.8¢128.846Mar 4
US recession by end of 2026?SELL22.6¢107.43Mar 4
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?SELL26.0¢55.55Mar 4
Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31?BUY62.9¢25.771Feb 26
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?SELL33.8¢47.79Feb 26
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the February Meeting?BUY57.0¢36.106Feb 12
Will the US next strike Iran on February 14, 2026 (ET)?SELL1.5¢672.41Feb 11
Will the US next strike Iran on February 13, 2026 (ET)?SELL1.3¢512.23Feb 11
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?SELL8.0¢49.64Feb 11
Will the US next strike Iran on February 14, 2026 (ET)?BUY2.7¢672.414Feb 6
Will the US next strike Iran on February 13, 2026 (ET)?BUY3.9¢512.233Feb 6
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?BUY27.0¢55.556Feb 5
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?SELL33.4¢159.19Feb 5
Another Canada election called by June 30?BUY64.0¢15.75Feb 4
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?BUY54.0¢9.259Feb 4
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?SELL9.0¢167.29Feb 4
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?BUY27.2¢49.643Jan 29
Will Khamenei leave Iran by March 31?BUY14.6¢137.175Jan 29
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?SELL35.0¢95.58Jan 29

Analytics

Unlock full analytics on Accrue
Odds DistributionContrarian / Long-Shot Hunter

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

100%75%50%25%22%< 10%19%10–20%21%20–30%18%30–50%18%50–70%70–80%80–90%> 90%
← Long ShotsSafe Bets →
Quantitative Edge Profile
Developing19.3

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)1.06
Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)17.6%
Win Consistency34.0%
Profit Factor0.50
Drawdown Resilience0.41
Conviction Sizing (Kelly)0.41
Weekly Sharpe est.0.31
Trading Activity96 trades · 44 active days
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P&L Calendar
$9828d profit35d loss
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