uncategorized
US next strikes Iran on...?
This market will resolve according to the next date (ET) the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and February 28, 2026, (ET).
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If no strike could be verified under the prior rule by 48 hours after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No strike by February 28," regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Markets (30)
resolved
Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)?
$5.8M vol · $0 liq
resolved
Will the US next strike Iran on February 27, 2026 (ET)?
$4.6M vol · $0 liq
resolved
Will the US next strike Iran on February 9, 2026 (ET)?
$3.5M vol · $0 liq
resolved
Will the US next strike Iran on February 26, 2026 (ET)?
$3.0M vol · $0 liq
resolved
Will the US next strike Iran on February 22, 2026 (ET)?
$3.0M vol · $0 liq
resolved
Will the US next strike Iran on February 10, 2026 (ET)?
$2.8M vol · $0 liq
resolved
Will the US next strike Iran on February 8, 2026 (ET)?
$2.6M vol · $0 liq
resolved
Will the US next strike Iran on February 11, 2026 (ET)?
$2.6M vol · $0 liq
resolved
Will the US next strike Iran on February 25, 2026 (ET)?
$2.6M vol · $0 liq
resolved
Will the US not strike Iran by February 28, 2026?
$2.5M vol · $0 liq
resolved
Will the US next strike Iran on February 24, 2026 (ET)?
$2.3M vol · $0 liq
resolved
Will the US next strike Iran on February 23, 2026 (ET)?
$2.3M vol · $0 liq
resolved
Will the US next strike Iran on February 20, 2026 (ET)?
$2.2M vol · $0 liq
resolved
Will the US next strike Iran on February 19, 2026 (ET)?
$1.9M vol · $0 liq
resolved
Will the US next strike Iran on February 21, 2026 (ET)?
$1.9M vol · $0 liq
resolved
Will the US next strike Iran on February 18, 2026 (ET)?
$1.5M vol · $0 liq
resolved
Will the US next strike Iran on February 17, 2026 (ET)?
$1.5M vol · $0 liq
resolved
Will the US next strike Iran on February 13, 2026 (ET)?
$1.2M vol · $0 liq
resolved
Will the US next strike Iran on February 12, 2026 (ET)?
$1.2M vol · $0 liq
resolved
Will the US next strike Iran on February 14, 2026 (ET)?
$1.1M vol · $0 liq
resolved
Will the US next strike Iran on February 4, 2026 (ET)?
$999K vol · $0 liq
resolved
Will the US next strike Iran on February 15, 2026 (ET)?
$921K vol · $0 liq
resolved
Will the US next strike Iran on February 1, 2026 (ET)?
$892K vol · $0 liq
resolved
Will the US next strike Iran on February 16, 2026 (ET)?
$890K vol · $0 liq
resolved
Will the US next strike Iran on February 7, 2026 (ET)?
$649K vol · $0 liq
resolved
Will the US next strike Iran on February 6, 2026 (ET)?
$577K vol · $0 liq
resolved
Will the US next strike Iran on February 5, 2026 (ET)?
$502K vol · $0 liq
resolved
Will the US next strike Iran on February 2, 2026 (ET)?
$490K vol · $0 liq
resolved
Will the US next strike Iran on February 3, 2026 (ET)?
$464K vol · $0 liq
resolved
Will the US next strike Iran in January 2026 (ET)?
$265K vol · $0 liq
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