uncategorized
US/Israel strikes Iran by...?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US or Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between the time of this market's creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US or Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Markets (26)
resolved
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?
$6.5M vol · $0 liq
resolved
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?
$5.9M vol · $0 liq
resolved
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026?
$2.8M vol · $0 liq
resolved
Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026?
$1.5M vol · $0 liq
resolved
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 12, 2026?
$837K vol · $0 liq
resolved
Will US or Israel strike Iran by June 30, 2026?
$752K vol · $0 liq
resolved
Will US or Israel strike Iran by December 31, 2026?
$583K vol · $0 liq
resolved
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 11, 2026?
$435K vol · $0 liq
resolved
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 10, 2026?
$344K vol · $0 liq
resolved
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 9, 2026?
$126K vol · $0 liq
resolved
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 8, 2026?
$102K vol · $0 liq
January 26resolved
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 26, 2026?
$0 vol · $0 liq
January 28resolved
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 28, 2026?
$0 vol · $0 liq
January 30resolved
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 30, 2026?
$0 vol · $0 liq
January 16resolved
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 16, 2026?
$0 vol · $0 liq
January 19resolved
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 19, 2026?
$0 vol · $0 liq
January 21resolved
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 21, 2026?
$0 vol · $0 liq
January 23resolved
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 23, 2026?
$0 vol · $0 liq
January 25resolved
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 25, 2026?
$0 vol · $0 liq
January 27resolved
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 27, 2026?
$0 vol · $0 liq
January 29resolved
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 29, 2026?
$0 vol · $0 liq
January 17resolved
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 17, 2026?
$0 vol · $0 liq
January 18resolved
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 18, 2026?
$0 vol · $0 liq
January 20resolved
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 20, 2026?
$0 vol · $0 liq
January 22resolved
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 22, 2026?
$0 vol · $0 liq
January 24resolved
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 24, 2026?
$0 vol · $0 liq
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