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0x04fFDBa82098944656F36Da59C52FD218E37F376-1768485546502

0x04ffdb...37f376
Smart Score
31
Win Rate
33.7%
Total P&L
+$685
Trade Count
389
Sharpe Ratio
0.84
Sortino Ratio
37.96
Max Drawdown
633.8%
ROI
16.9%
Profit Factor
1.99
Kelly Fraction
0.168
R² (Curve Fit)
—
Smart Score
030.7/100100

Recent Trades

MarketSidePriceSizeTime
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 5?BUY25.3¢262.077Mar 5
Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-1.5)BUY3.7¢136.332Mar 4
Spread: Manchester United FC (-2.5)BUY8.0¢125Mar 4
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?SELL80.0¢59.21Mar 3
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 4?SELL75.0¢45.17Mar 3
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?BUY36.4¢59.217Mar 3
Trump declares election interference national emergency? SELL29.4¢73.21Mar 3
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 4?BUY44.8¢45.174Mar 3
GPT-5.3 released by March 8, 2026?BUY3.9¢128.56Mar 3
Will Trump visit China by April 30?SELL13.0¢194.12Mar 3
Spread: AFC Bournemouth (-2.5)BUY8.0¢124Mar 3
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?SELL32.0¢31.02Mar 3
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?BUY35.5¢31.028Mar 2
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026?SELL1.8¢418.54Mar 2
Will Iran strike Cyprus in March?SELL82.0¢4.25Mar 1
Will Iran strike Cyprus in March?BUY66.0¢4.258Mar 1
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?SELL18.0¢15.62Mar 1
Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Florida GatorsBUY18.0¢81.056Feb 28
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?SELL56.0¢10.86Feb 28
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026?BUY2.4¢418.542Feb 28

Analytics

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Odds DistributionContrarian / Long-Shot Hunter

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

100%75%50%25%33%< 10%19%10–20%16%20–30%18%30–50%12%50–70%70–80%80–90%> 90%
← Long ShotsSafe Bets →
Quantitative Edge Profile
Developing30.7

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)1.69
Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)27.9%
Win Consistency43.9%
Profit Factor0.80
Drawdown Resilience0.64
Conviction Sizing (Kelly)0.64
Weekly Sharpe est.0.49
Trading Activity389 trades · 38 active days
MarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarMoWeFrSuLessMore
P&L Calendar
+$5912d profit24d loss
MarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarMoWeFrSuLossProfit

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue

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