0x0805FC3450A49b0FFdbe9C93A9e928791eFF0BB1-1772227506046

0x0805fc...ff0bb1

Smart Score

Win Rate

66.7%

Total P&L

+$258

Trade Count

Sharpe Ratio

4.86

Sortino Ratio

7.99

Max Drawdown

36.3%

ROI

8.8%

Profit Factor

3.65

Kelly Fraction

0.484

R² (Curve Fit)

—

Smart Score

076.6/100100

Recent Trades

Market	Side	Price	Size	Time
Will Iran strike Israel on March 4?	BUY	8.7¢	229.63	Mar 5
Will Iran strike nine or more countries in March?	SELL	97.1¢	117.64	Mar 5
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 5?	SELL	62.7¢	87.05	Mar 5
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 5?	BUY	53.0¢	37.736	Mar 5
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 5?	BUY	60.8¢	49.319	Mar 5
Will US or Israel strike Iran first?	BUY	50.2¢	59.761	Mar 4
Will US or Israel strike Iran first?	BUY	50.2¢	39.841	Mar 4
Will Iran strike Israel on March 3?	SELL	98.5¢	106.75	Mar 4
Will Iran strike a Gulf State on March 3?	SELL	99.4¢	44.64	Mar 3
Will Iran strike Israel on March 3?	BUY	93.7¢	106.752	Mar 3
Will Iran strike a Gulf State on March 3?	BUY	89.6¢	44.643	Mar 2
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by March 31, 2026?	SELL	32.0¢	71.25	Mar 2
Will US or Israel strike Iran first?	BUY	63.7¢	156.906	Mar 2
Will Iran strike Israel on March 2?	SELL	99.6¢	211.6	Mar 2
Will Iran strike Cyprus in March?	BUY	56.0¢	53.571	Mar 2
Will Iran strike Cyprus in March?	BUY	58.7¢	85.208	Mar 2
Will Iran strike Israel on March 2?	BUY	94.0¢	106.415	Mar 2
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by March 31, 2026?	BUY	28.1¢	71.256	Mar 2
Will Iran strike Israel on March 2?	BUY	94.0¢	53.176	Mar 2
Will Iran strike Israel on March 2?	BUY	96.2¢	41.58	Mar 2

Odds DistributionFavorite / High-Confidence

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

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Quantitative Edge Profile

Pro76.6

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)4.21

Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)69.7%

Win Consistency80.0%

Profit Factor1.99

Drawdown Resilience1.61

Conviction Sizing (Kelly)1.61

Weekly Sharpe est.1.23

Trading Activity41 trades · 6 active days

P&L Calendar

$53d profit3d loss

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue