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0x28444D46aF9ba9E3ae9874D8DB73cBeF30a8015c-1767526409612

0x28444d...a8015c
Smart Score
38
Win Rate
44.7%
Total P&L
+$1.6K
Trade Count
1,193
Sharpe Ratio
0.40
Sortino Ratio
35.63
Max Drawdown
1337.8%
ROI
41.1%
Profit Factor
2.96
Kelly Fraction
0.296
R² (Curve Fit)
—
Smart Score
037.5/100100

Recent Trades

MarketSidePriceSizeTime
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?BUY21.0¢47.619Mar 5
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?BUY21.0¢47.619Mar 5
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?BUY21.0¢47.619Mar 5
US forces enter Iran by March 14?BUY26.0¢19.231Mar 5
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?BUY65.2¢10Mar 4
Ethereum Up or Down on March 2?SELL99.9¢14.28Mar 2
Ethereum Up or Down on March 2?SELL78.0¢6Mar 2
Ethereum Up or Down on March 2?BUY80.0¢3.75Mar 2
Ethereum Up or Down on March 2?BUY21.0¢14.286Mar 2
Ethereum Up or Down on March 2?BUY81.0¢3.704Mar 2
Will Trump say "European Union" or "EU" during meetings with Chancellor Merz?BUY78.0¢1.282Mar 1
Ethereum Up or Down - March 1, 7PM ETBUY1.1¢90.909Mar 1
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut by March 31, 2026?SELL88.0¢1.4Mar 1
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 1?SELL75.0¢12.04Mar 1
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 1, 2026?SELL99.8¢1.08Mar 1
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?SELL84.1¢1.3Mar 1
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?SELL99.8¢10.05Mar 1
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?SELL99.8¢10.52Mar 1
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?BUY76.7¢1.304Mar 1
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 1, 2026?BUY92.0¢1.087Feb 28

Analytics

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Odds DistributionBalanced / Mid-Range

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

100%75%50%25%14%< 10%12%10–20%14%20–30%29%30–50%19%50–70%4%70–80%4%80–90%4%> 90%
← Long ShotsSafe Bets →
Quantitative Edge Profile
Developing37.5

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)2.06
Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)34.1%
Win Consistency57.7%
Profit Factor0.98
Drawdown Resilience0.79
Conviction Sizing (Kelly)0.79
Weekly Sharpe est.0.60
Trading Activity1,193 trades · 33 active days
MarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarMoWeFrSuLessMore
P&L Calendar
$1,1388d profit25d loss
MarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarMoWeFrSuLossProfit

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue

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