0x31b2fb...401f93

Smart Score

Win Rate

74.9%

Total P&L

+$52

Trade Count

1,126

Sharpe Ratio

0.49

Sortino Ratio

7.68

Max Drawdown

2582.4%

ROI

3.4%

Profit Factor

1.68

Kelly Fraction

0.304

R² (Curve Fit)

—

Smart Score

037.8/100100

Recent Trades

Market	Side	Price	Size	Time
Will Iran strike Israel on March 5?	SELL	8.0¢	6.67	Mar 5
Will Iran strike Israel on March 5?	SELL	7.0¢	0.12	Mar 5
Will Iran strike Israel on March 5?	SELL	7.0¢	0.13	Mar 5
Will Iran strike Israel on March 5?	SELL	8.0¢	0.1	Mar 5
Will Iran strike Israel on March 5?	SELL	7.0¢	0.1	Mar 5
Will Iran strike Israel on March 5?	SELL	9.0¢	0.1	Mar 5
Will Iran strike Israel on March 5?	SELL	13.0¢	0.1	Mar 5
Will Iran strike Israel on March 5?	SELL	13.0¢	0.28	Mar 5
Will Iran strike Israel on March 5?	BUY	25.0¢	7.6	Mar 5
Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 6, 2026?	BUY	98.0¢	1.99	Mar 5
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 5, 2026?	SELL	0.1¢	903.33	Mar 5
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 5, 2026?	BUY	0.3¢	346.667	Mar 5
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 5, 2026?	BUY	0.3¢	556.667	Mar 5
Will Iran strike Israel on March 4?	SELL	97.5¢	6.63	Mar 4
Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 8, 2026?	BUY	97.5¢	2	Mar 4
Will Iran strike Israel on March 5?	SELL	64.0¢	0.26	Mar 4
Will Iran strike Israel on March 5?	SELL	61.0¢	2.7	Mar 4
Will Iran strike Israel on March 4?	SELL	97.4¢	1.1	Mar 4
Will Leavitt say "State of the Union" during the next White House Press Briefing?	BUY	73.9¢	2.612	Mar 4
Will Leavitt say "State of the Union" during the next White House Press Briefing?	BUY	72.7¢	2.655	Mar 4

Odds DistributionFavorite / High-Confidence

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

← Long ShotsSafe Bets →

Quantitative Edge Profile

Developing37.8

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)2.08

Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)34.4%

Win Consistency48.6%

Profit Factor0.98

Drawdown Resilience0.79

Conviction Sizing (Kelly)0.79

Weekly Sharpe est.0.60

Trading Activity1,126 trades · 44 active days

P&L Calendar

$6037d profit37d loss

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue