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0x3dDf7Aa4EF5ca7DEC79A62FFbA97E1F84c01C7f5-1768914627578

0x3ddf7a...01c7f5
Smart Score
5
Win Rate
30.6%
Total P&L
+$10
Trade Count
133
Sharpe Ratio
-0.53
Sortino Ratio
-1.54
Max Drawdown
21348.5%
ROI
2.7%
Profit Factor
1.07
Kelly Fraction
0.020
R² (Curve Fit)
—
Smart Score
05/100100

Recent Trades

MarketSidePriceSizeTime
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?BUY0.4¢250Mar 5
Rockets vs. WizardsBUY3.0¢33.333Mar 2
US seizes an Iran-linked oil tanker by March 7?BUY25.0¢4Mar 1
Thunder vs. MavericksBUY2.3¢43.478Mar 1
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?BUY12.0¢8.333Feb 26
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by February 28?BUY3.3¢30.303Feb 26
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?BUY1.7¢58.824Feb 26
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?BUY1.7¢58.824Feb 26
US x Cuba military clash in 2026?BUY21.0¢9.524Feb 26
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?BUY8.0¢12.5Feb 26
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?BUY2.6¢38.462Feb 23
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?BUY1.7¢58.824Feb 22
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?BUY3.6¢27.778Feb 22
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?BUY4.6¢21.739Feb 20
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?BUY16.0¢6.25Feb 19
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?BUY6.2¢16.129Feb 19
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?BUY2.7¢37.037Feb 19
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?BUY27.0¢22.222Feb 19
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?BUY2.6¢38.462Feb 18
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?BUY7.6¢13.24Feb 18

Analytics

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Odds DistributionContrarian / Long-Shot Hunter

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

100%75%50%25%42%< 10%12%10–20%12%20–30%14%30–50%9%50–70%70–80%5%80–90%6%> 90%
← Long ShotsSafe Bets →
Quantitative Edge Profile
Developing5

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)0.28
Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)4.5%
Win Consistency30.6%
Profit Factor0.13
Drawdown Resilience0.11
Conviction Sizing (Kelly)0.11
Weekly Sharpe est.0.08
Trading Activity133 trades · 32 active days
MarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarMoWeFrSuLessMore
P&L Calendar
$2772d profit30d loss
MarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarMoWeFrSuLossProfit

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue

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