0x456478...674a11

Smart Score

Win Rate

63.2%

Total P&L

+$109.7K

Trade Count

Sharpe Ratio

0.99

Sortino Ratio

2.32

Max Drawdown

1079.5%

ROI

154.7%

Profit Factor

55.84

Kelly Fraction

0.620

R² (Curve Fit)

—

Smart Score

043.6/100100

Recent Trades

Market	Side	Price	Size	Time
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	SELL	59.0¢	882.35	Feb 28
Iran Strike on Israel by March 31?	SELL	98.0¢	192.3	Feb 28
Iran strike on Qatar by February 28, 2026?	SELL	21.2¢	1,526.53	Feb 28
Iran Strike on Israel by February 28?	SELL	58.7¢	2,025.43	Feb 28
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	BUY	18.2¢	46,403.153	Feb 28
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	BUY	17.0¢	58,823.529	Feb 27
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	SELL	31.0¢	1,086.95	Feb 27
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?	BUY	3.0¢	10,000	Feb 27
Iran strike on Qatar by February 28, 2026?	BUY	6.6¢	1,526.534	Feb 27
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?	SELL	5.3¢	13,699.31	Feb 27
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	BUY	52.6¢	950.172	Feb 27
US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026?	BUY	19.0¢	1,579.211	Feb 27
US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026?	BUY	16.0¢	1,875	Feb 27
US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?	BUY	13.0¢	2,307.692	Feb 27
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?	BUY	11.0¢	2,727.273	Feb 27
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?	BUY	9.0¢	3,333.333	Feb 27
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	BUY	7.0¢	4,285.714	Feb 27
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	BUY	34.0¢	882.353	Feb 27
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	BUY	46.0¢	1,086.957	Feb 26
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?	BUY	3.6¢	13,699.319	Feb 26

Odds DistributionBalanced / Mid-Range

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

← Long ShotsSafe Bets →

Quantitative Edge Profile

Developing43.6

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)2.40

Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)39.7%

Win Consistency66.7%

Profit Factor1.13

Drawdown Resilience0.92

Conviction Sizing (Kelly)0.92

Weekly Sharpe est.0.70

Trading Activity33 trades · 6 active days

P&L Calendar

$32,4961d profit5d loss

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue