0x4d1de1...e75aa0

Smart Score

Win Rate

45.3%

Total P&L

+$89.8K

Trade Count

994

Sharpe Ratio

2.33

Sortino Ratio

26.52

Max Drawdown

10.8%

ROI

44.6%

Profit Factor

17.96

Kelly Fraction

0.428

R² (Curve Fit)

—

Smart Score

081.9/100100

Recent Trades

Market	Side	Price	Size	Time
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?	SELL	0.4¢	102.94	Mar 4
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	SELL	27.0¢	2.17	Mar 4
Will Trump meet with Reza Pahlavi in March 2026?	SELL	15.0¢	35.71	Mar 4
Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	SELL	5.0¢	337.66	Mar 4
Will Israel strike 6 countries in 2026?	SELL	8.5¢	200	Mar 4
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	SELL	31.0¢	333.33	Mar 4
US forces enter Iran by March 14?	SELL	18.0¢	121.53	Mar 4
US forces enter Iran by March 14?	SELL	18.0¢	1,604.72	Mar 4
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	SELL	16.6¢	3,724.93	Mar 4
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	SELL	38.0¢	2,089.75	Mar 4
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?	SELL	26.0¢	3,000	Mar 4
US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 31?	SELL	54.0¢	0.21	Mar 4
US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 31?	SELL	54.0¢	40.741	Mar 4
US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 31?	SELL	54.0¢	16.667	Mar 4
US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 31?	SELL	54.0¢	9.259	Mar 4
US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 31?	SELL	54.0¢	7,299.82	Mar 4
Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	SELL	6.0¢	0.01	Mar 4
Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	SELL	6.0¢	0.1	Mar 4
Iran coup attempt by June 30?	SELL	31.3¢	988.41	Mar 4
Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	SELL	6.0¢	20	Mar 4

Odds DistributionContrarian / Long-Shot Hunter

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

← Long ShotsSafe Bets →

Quantitative Edge Profile

Pro81.9

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)4.50

Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)74.5%

Win Consistency56.7%

Profit Factor2.13

Drawdown Resilience1.72

Conviction Sizing (Kelly)1.72

Weekly Sharpe est.1.31

Trading Activity994 trades · 28 active days

P&L Calendar

+$81,72115d profit13d loss

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue