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0x4D8a89D16700BEfB5402406CBd5Add446448548c-1767913407872

0x4d8a89...48548c
Smart Score
81
Win Rate
50.0%
Total P&L
+$23.7K
Trade Count
25
Sharpe Ratio
2.01
Sortino Ratio
22.73
Max Drawdown
9.7%
ROI
37.2%
Profit Factor
14.83
Kelly Fraction
0.466
R² (Curve Fit)
—
Smart Score
081/100100

Recent Trades

MarketSidePriceSizeTime
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?BUY15.0¢6,666.667Mar 5
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?BUY15.0¢6,666.667Mar 5
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?BUY15.0¢6,686.72Mar 5
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?BUY15.0¢6,673.245Mar 5
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?BUY14.9¢6,715.864Mar 5
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?BUY14.9¢8,725.315Mar 5
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?BUY14.8¢6,756.798Mar 5
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?BUY14.7¢10,868.84Mar 5
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?SELL19.5¢18,795.81Mar 5
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?BUY16.1¢6,211.18Mar 4
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?BUY16.1¢6,211.18Mar 4
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?BUY16.1¢6,211.18Mar 4
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?BUY16.1¢6,211.18Mar 4
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?BUY16.1¢6,211.18Mar 4
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?BUY27.1¢3,687.697Mar 4
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?BUY26.9¢3,710.741Mar 4
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?BUY26.9¢3,711.111Mar 4
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?BUY26.0¢3,840.114Mar 4
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?BUY26.0¢3,846.154Mar 4
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?SELL99.8¢32,876.2Mar 1

Analytics

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Odds DistributionContrarian / Long-Shot Hunter

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

100%75%50%25%< 10%57%10–20%26%20–30%13%30–50%4%50–70%70–80%80–90%> 90%
← Long ShotsSafe Bets →
Quantitative Edge Profile
Pro81

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)4.46
Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)73.7%
Win Consistency50.0%
Profit Factor2.11
Drawdown Resilience1.70
Conviction Sizing (Kelly)1.70
Weekly Sharpe est.1.30
Trading Activity25 trades · 7 active days
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P&L Calendar
+$9,3171d profit6d loss
MarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarMoWeFrSuLossProfit

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue

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