0x514cef...02d9aa

Smart Score

Win Rate

73.9%

Total P&L

+$128

Trade Count

Sharpe Ratio

3.06

Sortino Ratio

4.60

Max Drawdown

70.0%

ROI

26.6%

Profit Factor

9.90

Kelly Fraction

0.664

R² (Curve Fit)

—

Smart Score

074.3/100100

Recent Trades

Market	Side	Price	Size	Time
US forces enter Iran by March 14?	SELL	52.0¢	2.17	Mar 4
US forces enter Iran by March 14?	SELL	70.5¢	33.45	Mar 4
US forces enter Iran by March 7?	SELL	45.7¢	235.23	Mar 4
US forces enter Iran by March 7?	SELL	6.1¢	42.54	Mar 4
US forces enter Iran by March 14?	SELL	24.0¢	4.25	Mar 4
US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31?	BUY	62.0¢	40.323	Mar 4
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?	BUY	97.9¢	25.536	Mar 4
US forces enter Iran by March 7?	BUY	9.0¢	277.778	Mar 4
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?	BUY	70.0¢	35.714	Mar 4
US forces enter Iran by March 14?	BUY	62.5¢	39.975	Mar 4
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	BUY	12.0¢	266.917	Mar 4
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C or below on March 4?	BUY	51.9¢	8.478	Mar 4
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 4?	BUY	93.0¢	2.376	Mar 4
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 50°F or higher on March 5?	BUY	99.0¢	11.636	Mar 3
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 10°C on March 5?	BUY	99.0¢	2.444	Mar 3
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 82°F or higher on March 5?	BUY	72.0¢	2.361	Mar 3
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	BUY	50.0¢	3.24	Mar 3
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C on March 3?	BUY	92.0¢	1.304	Mar 3
US strikes Iraq by February 28?	SELL	79.8¢	4.1	Mar 3
US strikes Iraq by February 28?	BUY	49.7¢	4.105	Mar 3

Odds DistributionBalanced / Mid-Range

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

← Long ShotsSafe Bets →

Quantitative Edge Profile

Active74.3

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)4.09

Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)67.6%

Win Consistency60.9%

Profit Factor1.93

Drawdown Resilience1.56

Conviction Sizing (Kelly)1.56

Weekly Sharpe est.1.19

Trading Activity41 trades · 7 active days

P&L Calendar

$1901d profit6d loss

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue