0x5dfa2c...2f9c89

Smart Score

Win Rate

68.6%

Total P&L

+$1.7K

Trade Count

3,264

Sharpe Ratio

0.54

Sortino Ratio

4.50

Max Drawdown

1256.9%

ROI

9.4%

Profit Factor

4.39

Kelly Fraction

0.530

R² (Curve Fit)

—

Smart Score

044.2/100100

Recent Trades

Market	Side	Price	Size	Time
Will Iran strike Israel on March 5?	SELL	89.0¢	6.29	Mar 5
Will Iran strike Israel on March 5?	SELL	89.0¢	0.03	Mar 5
Will Iran strike Israel on March 5?	SELL	91.0¢	1.22	Mar 5
Will Iran strike Israel on March 5?	SELL	86.0¢	1.35	Mar 5
Will Iran strike Israel on March 5?	SELL	87.0¢	2.28	Mar 5
Will Iran strike Israel on March 5?	SELL	86.0¢	1.02	Mar 5
Will Iran strike Israel on March 5?	BUY	82.0¢	12.19	Mar 5
US forces enter Iran by March 7?	BUY	87.7¢	11.4	Mar 5
US forces enter Iran by March 7?	BUY	87.9¢	11.37	Mar 5
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut on March 5, 2026?	BUY	99.9¢	9.99	Mar 5
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut on March 5, 2026?	BUY	99.9¢	0.02	Mar 5
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 5, 2026?	BUY	99.9¢	10.01	Mar 5
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 5, 2026?	BUY	99.8¢	10.02	Mar 5
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 5, 2026?	BUY	99.9¢	10.01	Mar 5
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut on March 5, 2026?	BUY	99.8¢	10.02	Mar 5
US strikes Iraq by March 7?	BUY	27.0¢	18.42	Mar 5
US strikes Iraq by March 7?	BUY	27.0¢	18.61	Mar 5
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 5, 2026?	BUY	99.8¢	10.01	Mar 5
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 5, 2026?	BUY	99.9¢	10.01	Mar 5
Will Iran strike Israel on March 5?	SELL	10.0¢	55.55	Mar 5

Odds DistributionBalanced / Mid-Range

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

← Long ShotsSafe Bets →

Quantitative Edge Profile

Developing44.2

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)2.43

Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)40.2%

Win Consistency43.1%

Profit Factor1.15

Drawdown Resilience0.93

Conviction Sizing (Kelly)0.93

Weekly Sharpe est.0.71

Trading Activity3,264 trades · 58 active days

P&L Calendar

$1,17821d profit37d loss

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue