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0x74725dBF883467E6fF1D137143889383176D74b2-1770378266225

0x74725d...6d74b2
Smart Score
21
Win Rate
45.9%
Total P&L
+$85
Trade Count
48
Sharpe Ratio
-0.08
Sortino Ratio
-0.22
Max Drawdown
123.2%
ROI
17.1%
Profit Factor
3.03
Kelly Fraction
0.308
R² (Curve Fit)
—
Smart Score
021.3/100100

Recent Trades

MarketSidePriceSizeTime
Will US or Israel strike Iran first?SELL50.0¢44.44Mar 5
US forces enter Iran by March 14?SELL37.0¢62.5Mar 5
Kurds declare independence from Iran?BUY68.0¢7.353Mar 5
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March?BUY29.1¢17.167Mar 4
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?BUY46.9¢10.66Mar 4
Will Jared Kushner enter Iran by June 30?BUY10.0¢50Mar 4
Will Benjamin Netanyahu enter Iran by June 30?BUY7.0¢71.429Mar 4
Will Donald Trump enter Iran by June 30?BUY9.0¢55.556Mar 4
Will any U.S. Senator enter Iran by June 30?BUY14.0¢35.714Mar 4
Will any U.S. House member enter Iran by June 30?BUY14.0¢35.714Mar 4
US forces enter Iran by March 31?BUY29.0¢34.483Mar 4
US forces enter Iran by March 14?BUY16.0¢62.5Mar 4
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?BUY38.0¢26.316Mar 3
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?BUY16.2¢30.864Mar 3
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?SELL99.9¢83.33Mar 3
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?BUY13.2¢30.285Mar 2
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?BUY6.4¢78.125Mar 2
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?BUY33.4¢59.936Feb 28
Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31?BUY67.0¢7.463Feb 27
Will Pizza Hut be acquired before 2027?SELL69.0¢8.19Feb 26

Analytics

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Odds DistributionBalanced / Mid-Range

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

100%75%50%25%15%< 10%25%10–20%10%20–30%20%30–50%13%50–70%70–80%5%80–90%10%> 90%
← Long ShotsSafe Bets →
Quantitative Edge Profile
Developing21.3

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)1.17
Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)19.4%
Win Consistency47.4%
Profit Factor0.55
Drawdown Resilience0.45
Conviction Sizing (Kelly)0.45
Weekly Sharpe est.0.34
Trading Activity48 trades · 14 active days
MarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarMoWeFrSuLessMore
P&L Calendar
$834d profit10d loss
MarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarMoWeFrSuLossProfit

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue

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