0x7addce...7ff9f4

Smart Score

Win Rate

58.1%

Total P&L

+$29.2K

Trade Count

3,725

Sharpe Ratio

0.20

Sortino Ratio

14.27

Max Drawdown

74107.7%

ROI

5.7%

Profit Factor

1.62

Kelly Fraction

0.223

R² (Curve Fit)

—

Smart Score

030/100100

Recent Trades

Market	Side	Price	Size	Time
US forces enter Iran by March 14?	BUY	38.9¢	1,246.53	Mar 5
US forces enter Iran by March 7?	BUY	27.1¢	532.59	Mar 5
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	BUY	8.4¢	29.37	Mar 4
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	BUY	8.4¢	170.63	Mar 4
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	BUY	8.2¢	369.08	Mar 4
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	BUY	30.4¢	947.99	Mar 4
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	BUY	18.7¢	2,969.55	Mar 4
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	BUY	42.0¢	5,917.12	Mar 4
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?	BUY	79.4¢	478.76	Mar 4
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	SELL	68.0¢	2,816.68	Mar 3
Will Israel or the US target Fordow nuclear facility?	BUY	59.2¢	334.65	Mar 3
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	BUY	14.9¢	412.73	Mar 3
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	SELL	93.1¢	2,812.36	Mar 2
Will Iran strike gulf oil facilities by March 31?	SELL	99.8¢	4,777.42	Mar 2
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?	SELL	61.6¢	1,527.64	Mar 2
US x Iran meeting by March 15, 2026?	BUY	17.5¢	2,592.1	Mar 2
Will Iran strike Cyprus in March?	BUY	36.0¢	2,926.86	Mar 2
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	BUY	22.6¢	6,822.98	Mar 2
Will Israel or the US target an Iranian oil or gas facility?	BUY	52.0¢	1,717.5	Mar 2
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?	BUY	34.0¢	3,055.28	Mar 2

Odds DistributionBalanced / Mid-Range

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

← Long ShotsSafe Bets →

Quantitative Edge Profile

Developing30

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)1.65

Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)27.3%

Win Consistency24.8%

Profit Factor0.78

Drawdown Resilience0.63

Conviction Sizing (Kelly)0.63

Weekly Sharpe est.0.48

Trading Activity3,725 trades · 153 active days

P&L Calendar

$115,06938d profit115d loss

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue