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0x7BaaB945f91054dCc0C66F0a27e9F82C800A8803-1770530864417

0x7baab9...0a8803
Smart Score
50
Win Rate
80.0%
Total P&L
+$216
Trade Count
26
Sharpe Ratio
0.76
Sortino Ratio
2.83
Max Drawdown
1698.5%
ROI
7.8%
Profit Factor
5.60
Kelly Fraction
0.657
R² (Curve Fit)
—
Smart Score
049.5/100100

Recent Trades

MarketSidePriceSizeTime
US forces enter Iran by March 14?BUY28.0¢197.107Mar 5
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?SELL68.0¢81.17Mar 5
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?BUY56.0¢81.179Mar 3
US forces enter Iran by March 31?BUY25.0¢400Mar 3
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6?SELL97.1¢149.8Mar 3
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6?BUY77.1¢149.808Mar 1
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?BUY0.2¢2,500Mar 1
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?BUY6.5¢307.692Feb 28
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?BUY6.6¢303.03Feb 28
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?SELL3.2¢844.62Feb 28
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?SELL30.0¢844.61Feb 28
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?BUY27.0¢1,173.593Feb 28
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?BUY38.8¢515.641Feb 28
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?SELL30.0¢400Feb 28
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?BUY50.0¢400Feb 28
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?SELL47.0¢1,073.42Feb 28
Odds of Khamenei being out as Supreme Leader by March 31 over 30% in February?BUY22.0¢92.364Feb 22
Odds of Khamenei out by March 31 over 40% in February?SELL13.0¢149.61Feb 22
Odds of Khamenei out by March 31 over 40% in February?BUY16.5¢42.471Feb 20
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?BUY22.0¢227.273Feb 19

Analytics

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Odds DistributionBalanced / Mid-Range

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

100%75%50%25%16%< 10%5%10–20%47%20–30%5%30–50%16%50–70%11%70–80%80–90%> 90%
← Long ShotsSafe Bets →
Quantitative Edge Profile
Developing49.5

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)2.72
Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)45.1%
Win Consistency45.5%
Profit Factor1.29
Drawdown Resilience1.04
Conviction Sizing (Kelly)1.04
Weekly Sharpe est.0.79
Trading Activity26 trades · 9 active days
MarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarMoWeFrSuLessMore
P&L Calendar
$5112d profit6d loss
MarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarMoWeFrSuLossProfit

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue

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