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0x841eCFF6521B4662C387Bb19623644aC77AB90fC-1770279991600

0x841ecf...ab90fc
Smart Score
77
Win Rate
63.6%
Total P&L
+$589
Trade Count
31
Sharpe Ratio
1.73
Sortino Ratio
36.47
Max Drawdown
38.8%
ROI
33.1%
Profit Factor
3.86
Kelly Fraction
0.471
R² (Curve Fit)
—
Smart Score
077.2/100100

Recent Trades

MarketSidePriceSizeTime
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?BUY35.3¢282.922Mar 5
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 5?SELL17.6¢350Mar 5
DeepSeek V4 released by March 15?BUY49.0¢408.163Mar 5
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 15?SELL32.0¢114.61Mar 4
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 15?SELL32.0¢35.39Mar 4
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 5?BUY17.0¢700Mar 4
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 15?BUY31.0¢150Mar 4
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?BUY4.2¢210Feb 28
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?SELL37.4¢200Feb 28
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?BUY52.3¢400Feb 28
US strikes Iran by March 6, 2026?BUY33.0¢100Feb 27
US strikes Iran by March 6, 2026?BUY35.0¢100Feb 27
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?SELL13.0¢350Feb 27
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?SELL14.0¢35.714Feb 27
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?SELL14.0¢184.25Feb 27
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?BUY17.0¢500Feb 20
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?BUY18.0¢500Feb 20
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?BUY17.0¢144.8Feb 20
Grok 4.20 released by February 14?BUY9.7¢465.482Feb 6
Grok 4.20 released by February 14?BUY7.0¢107.527Feb 6

Analytics

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Odds DistributionContrarian / Long-Shot Hunter

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

100%75%50%25%45%< 10%18%10–20%20–30%23%30–50%14%50–70%70–80%80–90%> 90%
← Long ShotsSafe Bets →
Quantitative Edge Profile
Pro77.2

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)4.25
Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)70.3%
Win Consistency72.7%
Profit Factor2.01
Drawdown Resilience1.62
Conviction Sizing (Kelly)1.62
Weekly Sharpe est.1.24
Trading Activity31 trades · 9 active days
MarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarMoWeFrSuLessMore
P&L Calendar
$8052d profit7d loss
MarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarMoWeFrSuLossProfit

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue

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