0x8eada4...aadacc

Smart Score

Win Rate

76.5%

Total P&L

+$16

Trade Count

126

Sharpe Ratio

0.88

Sortino Ratio

3.37

Max Drawdown

227.1%

ROI

12.4%

Profit Factor

3.06

Kelly Fraction

0.515

R² (Curve Fit)

—

Smart Score

042.7/100100

Recent Trades

Market	Side	Price	Size	Time
US forces enter Iran by March 7?	BUY	66.3¢	1.765	Mar 4
US forces enter Iran by March 14?	SELL	18.0¢	2.68	Mar 4
US forces enter Iran by March 14?	BUY	87.0¢	1.345	Mar 2
US forces enter Iran by March 14?	BUY	87.0¢	1.345	Mar 2
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	SELL	99.8¢	2.94	Mar 2
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	BUY	79.0¢	1.481	Feb 28
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	BUY	80.0¢	1.463	Feb 28
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?	SELL	95.0¢	2.17	Feb 28
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?	BUY	82.0¢	1.427	Feb 25
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?	BUY	82.0¢	1.427	Feb 25
Will the State of the Union be 110 minutes or longer?	BUY	26.0¢	4.5	Feb 24
Will the State of the Union be 110 minutes or longer?	SELL	58.0¢	2.36	Feb 24
Will the State of the Union be 110 minutes or longer?	BUY	50.0¢	2.36	Feb 24
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?	SELL	81.0¢	2.21	Feb 24
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?	SELL	81.0¢	1.56	Feb 24
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?	SELL	81.0¢	0.07	Feb 24
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?	SELL	81.0¢	0.02	Feb 24
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?	SELL	81.0¢	0.02	Feb 24
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?	SELL	81.0¢	0.01	Feb 24
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?	SELL	81.0¢	0.35	Feb 24

Odds DistributionFavorite / High-Confidence

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

← Long ShotsSafe Bets →

Quantitative Edge Profile

Developing42.7

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)2.35

Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)38.9%

Win Consistency63.9%

Profit Factor1.11

Drawdown Resilience0.90

Conviction Sizing (Kelly)0.90

Weekly Sharpe est.0.68

Trading Activity126 trades · 31 active days

P&L Calendar

$4710d profit21d loss

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue