0x8eb0df...a765f0

Smart Score

Win Rate

81.5%

Total P&L

+$143

Trade Count

Sharpe Ratio

-0.25

Sortino Ratio

-0.27

Max Drawdown

346.9%

ROI

0.6%

Profit Factor

1.32

Kelly Fraction

0.199

R² (Curve Fit)

—

Smart Score

015/100100

Recent Trades

Market	Side	Price	Size	Time
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 5?	SELL	67.0¢	200.59	Mar 5
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 5?	SELL	67.0¢	230	Mar 5
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 5?	SELL	67.0¢	610	Mar 5
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 5?	BUY	84.0¢	312.4	Mar 5
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 5?	BUY	84.0¢	5.77	Mar 5
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 5?	BUY	84.0¢	12.5	Mar 5
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 5?	BUY	84.0¢	709.928	Mar 5
Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch?	SELL	97.0¢	40.72	Mar 4
Paradex FDV above $750M one day after launch?	BUY	97.2¢	10	Mar 4
Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch?	SELL	97.0¢	9.278	Mar 4
Paradex FDV above $750M one day after launch?	BUY	98.1¢	5.51	Mar 4
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	BUY	93.0¢	100	Mar 4
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	BUY	59.0¢	100	Mar 1
GRVT FDV above $1B one day after launch?	SELL	95.0¢	6.05	Mar 1
Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch?	BUY	96.4¢	25	Feb 28
Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch?	BUY	96.4¢	25	Feb 28
GRVT FDV above $1B one day after launch?	BUY	91.0¢	6.06	Feb 28
US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?	BUY	99.8¢	795.63	Feb 28
US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?	BUY	99.7¢	45	Feb 28
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY	98.4¢	102	Feb 27

Odds DistributionFavorite / High-Confidence

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

← Long ShotsSafe Bets →

Quantitative Edge Profile

Developing15

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)0.82

Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)13.7%

Win Consistency48.1%

Profit Factor0.39

Drawdown Resilience0.32

Conviction Sizing (Kelly)0.32

Weekly Sharpe est.0.24

Trading Activity96 trades · 22 active days

P&L Calendar

$5,0815d profit13d loss

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue