0x902850...a1e4d8

Smart Score

Win Rate

78.9%

Total P&L

-$204

Trade Count

Sharpe Ratio

1.19

Sortino Ratio

5.15

Max Drawdown

18.4%

ROI

-2.4%

Profit Factor

0.40

Kelly Fraction

0.000

R² (Curve Fit)

—

Smart Score

039/100100

Recent Trades

Market	Side	Price	Size	Time
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6?	BUY	99.4¢	406.388	Mar 5
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 5, 2026?	BUY	98.6¢	403.949	Mar 3
US x Iran ceasefire by March 2?	BUY	98.3¢	398.169	Mar 1
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	SELL	60.6¢	600	Feb 28
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	BUY	50.0¢	600	Feb 28
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	BUY	20.0¢	500	Feb 28
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?	BUY	98.6¢	427.789	Feb 26
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?	BUY	98.4¢	421.799	Feb 24
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?	BUY	98.8¢	415.051	Feb 21
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?	BUY	94.1¢	410.074	Feb 19
US strikes Iran by February 16, 2026?	BUY	98.1¢	385.882	Feb 14
US strikes Iran by February 12, 2026?	BUY	99.0¢	378.545	Feb 11
US strikes Iran by February 10, 2026?	BUY	98.1¢	374.757	Feb 9
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?	SELL	2.4¢	200	Feb 5
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?	BUY	97.6¢	307.396	Feb 5
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?	BUY	5.0¢	200	Feb 2
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January?	SELL	99.9¢	302.11	Feb 1
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January?	BUY	99.3¢	302.115	Jan 29
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 28?	BUY	96.9¢	309.711	Jan 27
US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?	SELL	98.0¢	361.09	Jan 26

Odds DistributionFavorite / High-Confidence

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

← Long ShotsSafe Bets →

Quantitative Edge Profile

Developing39

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)2.15

Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)35.5%

Win Consistency80.0%

Profit Factor1.01

Drawdown Resilience0.82

Conviction Sizing (Kelly)0.82

Weekly Sharpe est.0.62

Trading Activity27 trades · 21 active days

P&L Calendar

$4,5332d profit16d loss

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue