0x9f31a6...677f8e

Smart Score

Win Rate

50.0%

Total P&L

+$41

Trade Count

189

Sharpe Ratio

0.93

Sortino Ratio

2.31

Max Drawdown

95.2%

ROI

0.4%

Profit Factor

1.14

Kelly Fraction

0.061

R² (Curve Fit)

—

Smart Score

018.6/100100

Recent Trades

Market	Side	Price	Size	Time
Houthi strike on Israel by March 6, 2026?	SELL	11.0¢	384.62	Mar 4
Houthi strike on Israel by March 6, 2026?	BUY	12.6¢	384.62	Mar 4
Will another country strike Iran by March 31?	SELL	37.0¢	108.7	Mar 4
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 7?	SELL	72.0¢	41.159	Mar 4
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 7?	SELL	72.0¢	25.25	Mar 4
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?	SELL	63.0¢	1.07	Mar 4
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?	SELL	64.0¢	68.38	Mar 4
Will another country strike Iran by March 31?	BUY	45.0¢	108.7	Mar 4
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by March 31?	SELL	74.4¢	40.6	Mar 4
Will Iran strike a Gulf State on March 5?	BUY	93.0¢	53.763	Mar 4
Will Iran strike a Gulf State on March 6?	BUY	91.5¢	54.646	Mar 4
Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 5, 2026?	BUY	87.1¢	57.386	Mar 4
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 4?	BUY	95.5¢	52.356	Mar 4
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6?	BUY	97.8¢	51.125	Mar 4
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?	SELL	72.0¢	21.7	Mar 4
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?	SELL	73.0¢	19.08	Mar 4
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?	SELL	73.6¢	25	Mar 4
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?	BUY	76.0¢	65.789	Mar 4
Will Iran strike Cyprus in March?	BUY	82.0¢	60.976	Mar 4
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?	SELL	75.0¢	56.21	Mar 4

Odds DistributionBalanced / Mid-Range

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

← Long ShotsSafe Bets →

Quantitative Edge Profile

Developing18.6

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)1.02

Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)16.9%

Win Consistency49.1%

Profit Factor0.48

Drawdown Resilience0.39

Conviction Sizing (Kelly)0.39

Weekly Sharpe est.0.30

Trading Activity189 trades · 7 active days

P&L Calendar

$5693d profit4d loss

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue