0x9fd74d...9db4e4

Smart Score

Win Rate

75.0%

Total P&L

-$114

Trade Count

Sharpe Ratio

1.91

Sortino Ratio

0.00

Max Drawdown

137.8%

ROI

-1.2%

Profit Factor

0.96

Kelly Fraction

0.000

R² (Curve Fit)

—

Smart Score

025.8/100100

Recent Trades

Market	Side	Price	Size	Time
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	BUY	79.1¢	3,484.199	Feb 18
Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026?	SELL	74.9¢	657.07	Feb 17
Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026?	SELL	74.9¢	301	Feb 17
Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026?	SELL	74.9¢	1,395.21	Feb 16
Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026?	SELL	74.9¢	1,325.13	Feb 16
Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026?	BUY	30.9¢	3,678.411	Feb 6
Will Claude 5 be released by February 28, 2026?	SELL	80.0¢	687.81	Feb 6
Will Claude 5 be released by February 28, 2026?	SELL	80.0¢	0.91	Feb 6
Will Claude 5 be released by February 28, 2026?	SELL	80.0¢	6.25	Feb 6
Will Claude 5 be released by February 28, 2026?	SELL	80.0¢	49.03	Feb 6
Will Claude 5 be released by February 28, 2026?	SELL	80.0¢	676	Feb 6
Will Claude 5 be released by February 28, 2026?	BUY	14.0¢	1,420	Feb 5
Will Claude 5 be released by February 6, 2026?	SELL	95.0¢	209.28	Feb 5
Will Claude 5 be released by February 6, 2026?	BUY	77.0¢	209.286	Feb 4
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?	SELL	56.0¢	287.77	Feb 2
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?	BUY	50.0¢	287.773	Jan 17
Will the US next strike Iran on January 14, 2026 (ET)?	SELL	99.8¢	144.06	Jan 15
Will the US next strike Iran on January 14, 2026 (ET)?	BUY	89.0¢	144.067	Jan 14
US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026?	BUY	93.0¢	128.194	Jan 12
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?	SELL	80.0¢	140	Jan 12

Odds DistributionBalanced / Mid-Range

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

← Long ShotsSafe Bets →

Quantitative Edge Profile

Developing25.8

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)1.42

Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)23.5%

Win Consistency87.5%

Profit Factor0.67

Drawdown Resilience0.54

Conviction Sizing (Kelly)0.54

Weekly Sharpe est.0.41

Trading Activity28 trades · 11 active days

P&L Calendar

$2424d profit7d loss

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue