0x9fda01...dd6c62

Smart Score

Win Rate

19.7%

Total P&L

+$1.1K

Trade Count

1,229

Sharpe Ratio

1.80

Sortino Ratio

256.04

Max Drawdown

7.2%

ROI

24.5%

Profit Factor

2.37

Kelly Fraction

0.114

R² (Curve Fit)

—

Smart Score

064.5/100100

Recent Trades

Market	Side	Price	Size	Time
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026?	BUY	1.4¢	200	Mar 5
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	BUY	21.9¢	45.682	Mar 5
Will FC Midtjylland win on 2026-03-12?	BUY	20.0¢	30	Mar 5
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	BUY	14.6¢	20	Mar 5
Will FC Midtjylland win on 2026-03-12?	BUY	20.0¢	30	Mar 5
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?	BUY	0.4¢	3,000	Mar 5
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?	BUY	0.4¢	500	Mar 5
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026?	BUY	1.4¢	200	Mar 5
US forces enter Iran by March 7?	BUY	79.8¢	50	Mar 5
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6?	BUY	0.9¢	300	Mar 5
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	BUY	18.0¢	20	Mar 5
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	SELL	16.1¢	930.2	Mar 5
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	BUY	18.0¢	10	Mar 5
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?	BUY	0.4¢	1,000	Mar 5
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUY	2.7¢	200	Mar 5
Will FC Midtjylland win on 2026-03-12?	BUY	22.0¢	30	Mar 5
US forces enter Iran by March 7?	SELL	44.0¢	200	Mar 4
Will FC Midtjylland win on 2026-03-12?	BUY	22.0¢	30	Mar 4
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	BUY	20.0¢	25	Mar 4
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March?	SELL	54.4¢	4.54	Mar 4

Odds DistributionContrarian / Long-Shot Hunter

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

← Long ShotsSafe Bets →

Quantitative Edge Profile

Active64.5

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)3.55

Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)58.7%

Win Consistency77.7%

Profit Factor1.68

Drawdown Resilience1.35

Conviction Sizing (Kelly)1.35

Weekly Sharpe est.1.03

Trading Activity1,229 trades · 13 active days

P&L Calendar

$7933d profit10d loss

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue