0xa16f36...fb74cd

Smart Score

Win Rate

40.0%

Total P&L

+$193

Trade Count

Sharpe Ratio

0.47

Sortino Ratio

1.60

Max Drawdown

112.5%

ROI

15.5%

Profit Factor

14.50

Kelly Fraction

0.372

R² (Curve Fit)

—

Smart Score

031.9/100100

Recent Trades

Market	Side	Price	Size	Time
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?	SELL	31.0¢	32.47	Mar 5
US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31?	BUY	59.0¢	16.949	Mar 5
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?	BUY	3.9¢	128.205	Mar 4
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	BUY	28.0¢	53.571	Mar 3
DeepSeek V4 released by March 15?	BUY	58.0¢	17.241	Mar 3
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?	BUY	61.6¢	16.232	Mar 3
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?	BUY	61.6¢	16.245	Mar 3
Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch?	BUY	55.6¢	17.986	Mar 3
DeepSeek V4 released by March 15?	BUY	65.0¢	15.385	Mar 1
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?	BUY	58.0¢	17.241	Mar 1
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?	BUY	58.0¢	17.241	Mar 1
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	BUY	43.0¢	23.256	Mar 1
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	BUY	30.9¢	32.362	Mar 1
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	BUY	65.0¢	15.385	Mar 1
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	BUY	34.0¢	14.706	Feb 28
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	BUY	40.0¢	25	Feb 28
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?	SELL	99.1¢	60	Feb 28
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?	SELL	20.0¢	40	Feb 27
Hyperlend FDV above $20M one day after launch?	BUY	70.0¢	15	Feb 27
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?	BUY	8.0¢	100	Feb 27

Odds DistributionBalanced / Mid-Range

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

← Long ShotsSafe Bets →

Quantitative Edge Profile

Developing31.9

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)1.75

Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)29.0%

Win Consistency46.2%

Profit Factor0.83

Drawdown Resilience0.67

Conviction Sizing (Kelly)0.67

Weekly Sharpe est.0.51

Trading Activity40 trades · 11 active days

P&L Calendar

$44d profit7d loss

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue