0xa38e3e...8b5062

Smart Score

Win Rate

87.7%

Total P&L

+$148

Trade Count

602

Sharpe Ratio

-0.47

Sortino Ratio

-0.60

Max Drawdown

5485.6%

ROI

0.1%

Profit Factor

1.08

Kelly Fraction

0.062

R² (Curve Fit)

—

Smart Score

013/100100

Recent Trades

Market	Side	Price	Size	Time
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026?	BUY	86.1¢	100	Mar 5
Will there be between 14 and 17 US strikes on Somalia in February 2026?	BUY	99.9¢	140.05	Mar 4
Will there be between 10 and 13 US strikes on Somalia in February 2026?	BUY	99.9¢	20	Mar 4
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026?	BUY	78.8¢	11	Mar 4
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	BUY	99.9¢	1,300	Mar 4
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	SELL	99.8¢	616	Mar 4
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026?	BUY	95.6¢	766.35	Mar 2
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026?	BUY	95.6¢	63.409	Mar 2
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026?	BUY	95.6¢	22.727	Mar 2
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026?	BUY	95.6¢	22.727	Mar 2
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026?	BUY	95.6¢	124.773	Mar 2
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	BUY	97.9¢	25	Feb 28
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	BUY	97.9¢	480	Feb 28
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	BUY	97.9¢	10	Feb 28
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	BUY	98.0¢	90	Feb 28
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 28 to March 2, 2026?	BUY	89.8¢	18.32	Feb 28
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	SELL	96.5¢	400	Feb 28
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 28 to March 2, 2026?	BUY	91.9¢	18.4	Feb 28
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	BUY	95.9¢	400	Feb 28
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 28 to March 2, 2026?	BUY	97.5¢	110.76	Feb 28

Analytics

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Odds DistributionFavorite / High-Confidence

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

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Quantitative Edge Profile

Developing13

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)0.72

Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)11.8%

Win Consistency52.7%

Profit Factor0.34

Drawdown Resilience0.27

Conviction Sizing (Kelly)0.27

Weekly Sharpe est.0.21

Trading Activity602 trades · 104 active days

P&L Calendar

$76,10912d profit92d loss

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue

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