0xa58a76...82709d

Smart Score

Win Rate

14.3%

Total P&L

+$3

Trade Count

Sharpe Ratio

1.63

Sortino Ratio

26.14

Max Drawdown

133.9%

ROI

5.0%

Profit Factor

2.18

Kelly Fraction

0.077

R² (Curve Fit)

—

Smart Score

029.4/100100

Recent Trades

Market	Side	Price	Size	Time
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C or below on March 6?	BUY	12.1¢	8.264	Mar 5
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C or higher on March 6?	BUY	12.0¢	8.333	Mar 5
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 9°C or below on March 6?	BUY	3.6¢	27.778	Mar 5
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on March 5?	BUY	31.0¢	3.226	Mar 4
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on March 5?	BUY	7.0¢	14.303	Mar 4
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 4?	SELL	6.1¢	42.62	Mar 3
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 4?	SELL	4.7¢	83.33	Mar 3
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 4?	BUY	2.3¢	42.628	Mar 3
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 4?	BUY	1.2¢	83.333	Mar 3
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on March 4?	BUY	38.0¢	5.263	Mar 3
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 40-41°F on March 3?	BUY	47.0¢	2.128	Mar 3
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C or below on March 1?	BUY	5.4¢	18.612	Feb 28
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -3°C or higher on March 1?	BUY	13.7¢	7.305	Feb 28
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.24ºC in February 2026?	SELL	3.6¢	33.33	Feb 28
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on February 28?	SELL	4.1¢	56.29	Feb 28
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on February 28?	SELL	14.0¢	34.33	Feb 28
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 46°F or higher on March 1?	BUY	0.7¢	142.857	Feb 28
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on February 28?	BUY	2.9¢	34.33	Feb 27
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on February 28?	BUY	1.8¢	56.293	Feb 27
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.24ºC in February 2026?	BUY	3.0¢	33.333	Feb 25

Analytics

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Odds DistributionContrarian / Long-Shot Hunter

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

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Quantitative Edge Profile

Developing29.4

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)1.62

Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)26.8%

Win Consistency42.9%

Profit Factor0.76

Drawdown Resilience0.62

Conviction Sizing (Kelly)0.62

Weekly Sharpe est.0.47

Trading Activity30 trades · 12 active days

P&L Calendar

$34d profit8d loss

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue

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