0xa8026f...82fb96

Smart Score

Win Rate

43.5%

Total P&L

+$5

Trade Count

Sharpe Ratio

0.92

Sortino Ratio

10.21

Max Drawdown

41.9%

ROI

2.8%

Profit Factor

1.21

Kelly Fraction

0.077

R² (Curve Fit)

—

Smart Score

052.4/100100

Recent Trades

Market	Side	Price	Size	Time
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	BUY	54.0¢	20.37	Mar 5
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?	SELL	74.0¢	14.87	Mar 5
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	BUY	74.0¢	17.162	Mar 4
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	SELL	56.0¢	11	Mar 4
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?	SELL	31.0¢	5.4	Mar 4
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	SELL	27.0¢	10.34	Mar 4
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?	BUY	37.0¢	5.405	Mar 2
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	SELL	0.1¢	71	Mar 2
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 15?	BUY	37.0¢	13.703	Mar 2
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?	BUY	63.0¢	15.873	Mar 2
Will Bill Clinton be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?	SELL	1.0¢	4.83	Feb 28
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	BUY	4.0¢	71	Feb 28
Will TheUnitedStrand get a haircut by 2025-26 season end?	SELL	18.0¢	15.75	Feb 28
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	BUY	44.0¢	11	Feb 28
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	BUY	29.0¢	10.345	Feb 28
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?	BUY	36.0¢	13.889	Feb 28
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?	BUY	26.0¢	0.99	Feb 28
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	SELL	43.0¢	6.27	Feb 28
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	SELL	17.0¢	10.38	Feb 21
Starmer out by February 28, 2026?	SELL	1.8¢	36.87	Feb 20

Odds DistributionBalanced / Mid-Range

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

← Long ShotsSafe Bets →

Quantitative Edge Profile

Developing52.4

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)2.88

Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)47.7%

Win Consistency48.1%

Profit Factor1.36

Drawdown Resilience1.10

Conviction Sizing (Kelly)1.10

Weekly Sharpe est.0.84

Trading Activity56 trades · 22 active days

P&L Calendar

$697d profit14d loss

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue