0xaad083...6ba590

Smart Score

Win Rate

89.2%

Total P&L

-$279

Trade Count

166

Sharpe Ratio

0.07

Sortino Ratio

0.15

Max Drawdown

730.0%

ROI

-2.2%

Profit Factor

0.53

Kelly Fraction

0.000

R² (Curve Fit)

—

Smart Score

014.4/100100

Recent Trades

Market	Side	Price	Size	Time
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6?	BUY	99.2¢	105.333	Mar 5
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	BUY	99.6¢	104.49	Jan 30
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	BUY	99.1¢	104.067	Jan 26
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	SELL	98.4¢	104.81	Jan 23
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	BUY	98.1¢	104.82	Jan 21
US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026?	BUY	99.1¢	55	Jan 17
Fogo FDV above $2B one day after launch?	BUY	99.6¢	9.29	Jan 15
Fogo FDV above $2B one day after launch?	BUY	99.6¢	9	Jan 15
Fogo FDV above $2B one day after launch?	BUY	99.6¢	20.04	Jan 15
Fogo FDV above $2B one day after launch?	BUY	99.6¢	44	Jan 15
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?	BUY	92.0¢	20	Jan 15
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Friday?	BUY	99.6¢	100.4	Jan 9
Will Trump meet with Putin by December 31?	BUY	83.0¢	65.34	Oct 18
Meteora FDV above $1B one day after launch?	SELL	33.0¢	164.35	Oct 18
Meteora FDV above $1B one day after launch?	BUY	82.0¢	164.35	Sep 30
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or?	BUY	97.2¢	27.61	Sep 22
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or?	BUY	97.2¢	107.143	Sep 22
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?	BUY	94.0¢	130.99	Sep 16
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 15?	BUY	99.0¢	123.13	Sep 11
Will Trump resign today?	BUY	99.6¢	121.9	Sep 2

Odds DistributionFavorite / High-Confidence

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

← Long ShotsSafe Bets →

Quantitative Edge Profile

Developing14.4

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)0.79

Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)13.1%

Win Consistency72.3%

Profit Factor0.37

Drawdown Resilience0.30

Conviction Sizing (Kelly)0.30

Weekly Sharpe est.0.23

Trading Activity60 trades · 36 active days

P&L Calendar

$2,7802d profit30d loss

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue