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0xadc89d...b804ee

0xadc89d...b804ee
Smart Score
30
Win Rate
27.5%
Total P&L
+$586
Trade Count
380
Sharpe Ratio
1.68
Sortino Ratio
82.68
Max Drawdown
367.4%
ROI
8.4%
Profit Factor
1.33
Kelly Fraction
0.069
R² (Curve Fit)
—
Smart Score
029.8/100100

Recent Trades

MarketSidePriceSizeTime
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6?SELL0.8¢250Mar 5
Major CEX insolvent in 2026?SELL11.0¢25Mar 5
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?SELL1.1¢517.34Mar 5
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by March 31?SELL25.5¢149.25Mar 5
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?BUY0.2¢3,305Mar 3
Will another country strike Iran by March 31?SELL73.0¢9.06Mar 3
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?BUY0.2¢2,355Mar 3
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?SELL21.6¢21.81Mar 3
Will Hillary's remarks not air?BUY5.9¢168.3Mar 2
Will Hillary's remarks not air?BUY29.7¢16.7Mar 2
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?SELL10.2¢125.95Mar 2
US x Iran ceasefire by March 2?BUY0.3¢1,000Mar 2
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6?BUY8.0¢250Mar 2
Will another country strike Iran by March 31?SELL59.0¢42.53Mar 2
Will Hassan Khomeini be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?BUY24.0¢31.25Mar 2
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?BUY8.6¢87.267Mar 2
Will Ali Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?BUY8.0¢94.027Mar 2
Will Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?BUY15.9¢47.17Mar 2
Will another country strike Iran by March 31?BUY67.0¢223.881Mar 1
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 2, 2026?BUY1.5¢153.333Mar 1

Analytics

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Odds DistributionContrarian / Long-Shot Hunter

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

100%75%50%25%45%< 10%13%10–20%9%20–30%11%30–50%8%50–70%5%70–80%6%80–90%4%> 90%
← Long ShotsSafe Bets →
Quantitative Edge Profile
Developing29.8

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)1.64
Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)27.1%
Win Consistency52.4%
Profit Factor0.77
Drawdown Resilience0.63
Conviction Sizing (Kelly)0.63
Weekly Sharpe est.0.48
Trading Activity380 trades · 20 active days
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P&L Calendar
$2,9883d profit15d loss
MarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarMoWeFrSuLossProfit

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue

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