0xaf96df...5d9009

Smart Score

Win Rate

97.6%

Total P&L

-$317

Trade Count

3,737

Sharpe Ratio

-1.00

Sortino Ratio

-0.64

Max Drawdown

398261.2%

ROI

-0.5%

Profit Factor

0.61

Kelly Fraction

0.000

R² (Curve Fit)

—

Smart Score

04.9/100100

Recent Trades

Market	Side	Price	Size	Time
US strikes Iraq by March 7?	BUY	73.0¢	13.699	Mar 5
US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31?	BUY	62.0¢	8.065	Mar 5
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?	SELL	33.0¢	17.54	Mar 5
GPT-5.4 released by March 5?	BUY	82.0¢	6.098	Mar 5
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?	BUY	70.0¢	14.286	Mar 4
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?	BUY	62.7¢	15.938	Mar 4
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?	BUY	46.0¢	10.87	Mar 4
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?	BUY	33.0¢	15.152	Mar 4
DeepSeek V4 released by March 15?	BUY	55.0¢	5.455	Mar 4
DeepSeek V4 released by March 31?	BUY	70.6¢	14.167	Mar 4
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch?	BUY	75.0¢	13.333	Mar 4
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?	BUY	52.0¢	9.615	Mar 4
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	BUY	40.0¢	50	Mar 4
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	BUY	22.0¢	22.727	Mar 4
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?	BUY	3.9¢	128.71	Mar 4
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	BUY	71.4¢	2.801	Mar 4
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 5?	BUY	64.0¢	4.688	Mar 4
GPT-5.3 released by March 15, 2026?	BUY	85.0¢	5.882	Mar 3
GPT-5.3 released by March 8, 2026?	BUY	75.0¢	1.333	Mar 3
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?	BUY	57.0¢	8.772	Mar 3

Odds DistributionFavorite / High-Confidence

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

← Long ShotsSafe Bets →

Quantitative Edge Profile

Developing4.9

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)0.27

Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)4.5%

Win Consistency27.8%

Profit Factor0.13

Drawdown Resilience0.10

Conviction Sizing (Kelly)0.10

Weekly Sharpe est.0.08

Trading Activity3,737 trades · 135 active days

P&L Calendar

$60,1970d profit135d loss

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue