0xb04a46...6bacfc

Smart Score

Win Rate

48.5%

Total P&L

+$4.9K

Trade Count

3,952

Sharpe Ratio

0.75

Sortino Ratio

4.98

Max Drawdown

67.8%

ROI

4.4%

Profit Factor

4.65

Kelly Fraction

0.381

R² (Curve Fit)

—

Smart Score

063/100100

Recent Trades

Market	Side	Price	Size	Time
US forces enter Iran by March 7?	BUY	13.1¢	91.81	Mar 5
US forces enter Iran by March 7?	BUY	13.1¢	5	Mar 5
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15?	SELL	5.5¢	1,038.36	Mar 5
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	BUY	56.8¢	120	Mar 5
US forces enter Iran by March 7?	SELL	15.6¢	235.82	Mar 5
US forces enter Iran by March 7?	BUY	17.0¢	707.46	Mar 5
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	BUY	36.5¢	13.93	Mar 5
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	BUY	54.0¢	59.99	Mar 5
Ukraine election called by March 31, 2026?	SELL	2.6¢	0.49	Mar 5
Will Iran strike Pakistan in March?	SELL	89.0¢	62.1	Mar 5
Will Iran strike Pakistan in March?	SELL	89.1¢	62.08	Mar 5
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?	BUY	17.0¢	0.83	Mar 4
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?	BUY	17.0¢	71.42	Mar 4
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?	BUY	17.0¢	8.32	Mar 4
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?	SELL	91.8¢	63.02	Mar 4
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?	SELL	91.9¢	3.1	Mar 4
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?	SELL	91.9¢	5.68	Mar 4
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?	SELL	91.9¢	2.47	Mar 4
Will Iran strike Pakistan in March?	SELL	89.0¢	13.54	Mar 4
Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	SELL	7.0¢	60.34	Mar 4

Odds DistributionBalanced / Mid-Range

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

← Long ShotsSafe Bets →

Quantitative Edge Profile

Active63

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)3.46

Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)57.3%

Win Consistency49.5%

Profit Factor1.64

Drawdown Resilience1.32

Conviction Sizing (Kelly)1.32

Weekly Sharpe est.1.01

Trading Activity3,952 trades · 45 active days

P&L Calendar

$5,71817d profit28d loss

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue