0xb1576b...78f7ce

Smart Score

Win Rate

17.2%

Total P&L

+$462.5K

Trade Count

158

Sharpe Ratio

2.28

Sortino Ratio

487.36

Max Drawdown

44.3%

ROI

2497.7%

Profit Factor

284.93

Kelly Fraction

0.171

R² (Curve Fit)

—

Smart Score

066.3/100100

Recent Trades

Market	Side	Price	Size	Time
US x Iran meeting by March 15, 2026?	BUY	6.0¢	1,825.248	Mar 5
Will Trump say "Waste" this week? (March 1)	BUY	0.2¢	2,500	Mar 4
Will Leavitt say "State of the Union" during the next White House Press Briefing?	BUY	0.1¢	5,000	Mar 4
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	SELL	21.0¢	1,806.66	Mar 4
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	BUY	20.0¢	500	Mar 4
Will the People’s Party (PPLE) win fewer than 120 seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?	SELL	0.5¢	605.21	Mar 4
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	BUY	13.0¢	140	Mar 4
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	BUY	13.0¢	500	Mar 4
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	BUY	15.0¢	666.667	Mar 4
War Powers resolution passes the Senate?	SELL	86.0¢	215.1	Mar 4
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	BUY	47.9¢	208.677	Mar 4
War Powers resolution passes the Senate?	BUY	81.0¢	209.842	Mar 4
War Powers resolution passes the Senate?	BUY	81.0¢	5.263	Mar 4
Will Trump say "Waste" this week? (March 1)	BUY	0.3¢	5,000	Mar 4
Will the People’s Party (PPLE) win fewer than 120 seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?	BUY	5.0¢	605.218	Mar 4
Will Japan’s January 2026 unemployment rate be 2.6%?	BUY	0.2¢	15,000	Mar 4
Will Japan’s January 2026 unemployment rate be ≥2.7%?	BUY	0.2¢	16,162.473	Mar 4
Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)?	BUY	0.2¢	10,000	Mar 4
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	BUY	0.2¢	50,000	Mar 3
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	BUY	0.2¢	50,000	Mar 3

Odds DistributionContrarian / Long-Shot Hunter

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

← Long ShotsSafe Bets →

Quantitative Edge Profile

Active66.3

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)3.65

Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)60.3%

Win Consistency46.3%

Profit Factor1.72

Drawdown Resilience1.39

Conviction Sizing (Kelly)1.39

Weekly Sharpe est.1.06

Trading Activity158 trades · 8 active days

P&L Calendar

+$4,1422d profit6d loss

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue