0xb22286...7ed26b

Smart Score

Win Rate

16.1%

Total P&L

+$644

Trade Count

Sharpe Ratio

0.29

Sortino Ratio

67.71

Max Drawdown

44.4%

ROI

66.5%

Profit Factor

6.08

Kelly Fraction

0.134

R² (Curve Fit)

—

Smart Score

057.8/100100

Recent Trades

Market	Side	Price	Size	Time
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	BUY	19.0¢	21.053	Mar 5
Will Japan win the 2026 World Baseball Classic?	BUY	23.0¢	21.739	Mar 5
GPT-5.4 released by March 5?	BUY	18.0¢	16.667	Mar 5
First Round Pool A: Panama vs. Colombia	BUY	50.0¢	20	Mar 2
First Round Pool A: Canada vs. Colombia	BUY	50.0¢	10	Mar 2
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?	BUY	20.0¢	25	Mar 2
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?	SELL	60.0¢	38.46	Mar 2
Will Khamenei visit Russia by March 31?	BUY	1.1¢	92.123	Feb 28
Will Khamenei leave Iran by March 31?	BUY	4.5¢	22.222	Feb 28
Khamenei seen in public by March 1?	BUY	3.3¢	30.303	Feb 28
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	SELL	96.1¢	47.61	Feb 28
Will It Was Just An Accident win Best International Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards?	BUY	5.1¢	78.596	Feb 23
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?	BUY	26.0¢	38.462	Feb 23
Will Sanae Takaichi be the next leader out before 2027?	SELL	0.1¢	112.35	Feb 20
Will the US strike Somalia next?	BUY	1.5¢	66.667	Feb 11
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-11?	BUY	29.0¢	10.345	Feb 11
Will Chelsea FC vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw?	BUY	21.0¢	9.524	Feb 10
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-10?	BUY	44.0¢	11.364	Feb 10
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in January?	SELL	72.8¢	19.01	Jan 31
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	SELL	0.5¢	22.72	Jan 30

Odds DistributionContrarian / Long-Shot Hunter

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

← Long ShotsSafe Bets →

Quantitative Edge Profile

Active57.8

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)3.18

Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)52.6%

Win Consistency45.6%

Profit Factor1.50

Drawdown Resilience1.21

Conviction Sizing (Kelly)1.21

Weekly Sharpe est.0.92

Trading Activity77 trades · 41 active days

P&L Calendar

+$710d profit31d loss

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue