0xb40894...f5fcb1

Smart Score

Win Rate

38.2%

Total P&L

+$3

Trade Count

Sharpe Ratio

0.76

Sortino Ratio

5.30

Max Drawdown

1652.9%

ROI

1.9%

Profit Factor

1.24

Kelly Fraction

0.074

R² (Curve Fit)

—

Smart Score

023.3/100100

Recent Trades

Market	Side	Price	Size	Time
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?	BUY	68.0¢	2.941	Mar 5
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?	BUY	48.0¢	14.583	Mar 4
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	BUY	77.0¢	26	Mar 4
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 31?	BUY	85.0¢	5.882	Mar 4
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	BUY	79.0¢	12.658	Mar 4
Will Iran strike Cyprus in March?	BUY	25.0¢	40	Mar 4
Will Iran strike Cyprus in March?	SELL	78.0¢	10.25	Mar 4
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	BUY	39.0¢	50	Mar 4
US forces enter Iran by March 14?	BUY	85.0¢	23.529	Mar 4
US strike on Cuba by March 31?	BUY	94.9¢	15.69	Mar 4
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?	SELL	5.2¢	6.66	Mar 3
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	BUY	64.0¢	3.125	Mar 3
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	BUY	64.0¢	4.688	Mar 3
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	SELL	51.0¢	1.42	Mar 3
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of March?	BUY	83.0¢	2.41	Mar 3
Will Iran strike Cyprus in March?	BUY	78.0¢	6.41	Mar 3
Will Iran strike Cyprus in March?	BUY	78.0¢	3.846	Mar 3
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	BUY	18.6¢	5.376	Mar 3
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	BUY	62.0¢	1.613	Mar 3
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	BUY	81.0¢	1.235	Mar 3

Odds DistributionBalanced / Mid-Range

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

← Long ShotsSafe Bets →

Quantitative Edge Profile

Developing23.3

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)1.28

Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)21.2%

Win Consistency43.2%

Profit Factor0.61

Drawdown Resilience0.49

Conviction Sizing (Kelly)0.49

Weekly Sharpe est.0.37

Trading Activity54 trades · 12 active days

P&L Calendar

$1471d profit11d loss

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue