0xb442b3...7abed7

Smart Score

Win Rate

51.4%

Total P&L

+$7.1K

Trade Count

4,000

Sharpe Ratio

0.76

Sortino Ratio

4.01

Max Drawdown

456.2%

ROI

54.9%

Profit Factor

1.88

Kelly Fraction

0.240

R² (Curve Fit)

—

Smart Score

025.3/100100

Recent Trades

Market	Side	Price	Size	Time
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	BUY	60.0¢	7.45	Mar 5
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?	SELL	89.0¢	0.31	Mar 5
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	SELL	80.0¢	0.89	Mar 4
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	BUY	73.0¢	2.068	Mar 4
Will Iran strike Lebanon in March?	SELL	90.0¢	0.61	Mar 4
Will Iran strike Lebanon in March?	SELL	90.0¢	0.05	Mar 4
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?	SELL	66.0¢	2.28	Mar 4
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	SELL	83.9¢	0.04	Mar 4
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	SELL	83.9¢	0.05	Mar 4
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	SELL	83.9¢	0.03	Mar 4
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	SELL	83.9¢	0.06	Mar 4
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	SELL	83.9¢	0.05	Mar 4
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	SELL	83.9¢	0.05	Mar 4
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	SELL	91.0¢	0.13	Mar 4
Will Donald Trump enter Iran by June 30?	SELL	92.0¢	0.19	Mar 4
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	SELL	83.9¢	0.24	Mar 4
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	SELL	91.0¢	0.13	Mar 4
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	SELL	83.9¢	0.41	Mar 4
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	SELL	83.9¢	0.01	Mar 4
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	SELL	83.9¢	0.03	Mar 4

Odds DistributionFavorite / High-Confidence

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

← Long ShotsSafe Bets →

Quantitative Edge Profile

Developing25.3

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)1.39

Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)23.0%

Win Consistency52.4%

Profit Factor0.66

Drawdown Resilience0.53

Conviction Sizing (Kelly)0.53

Weekly Sharpe est.0.40

Trading Activity4,000 trades · 4 active days

P&L Calendar

$5,7221d profit3d loss

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue