0xb54c34...af58ed

Smart Score

Win Rate

37.5%

Total P&L

+$20

Trade Count

Sharpe Ratio

2.16

Sortino Ratio

41.78

Max Drawdown

170.3%

ROI

1.5%

Profit Factor

1.05

Kelly Fraction

0.018

R² (Curve Fit)

—

Smart Score

030.9/100100

Recent Trades

Market	Side	Price	Size	Time
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	BUY	37.9¢	42.216	Mar 5
Kurds declare independence from Iran?	SELL	30.0¢	52.63	Mar 5
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	BUY	46.0¢	21.739	Mar 5
US forces enter Iran by March 7?	BUY	23.6¢	16.916	Mar 5
US strikes Iraq by February 28?	BUY	0.1¢	2,000	Mar 4
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?	SELL	33.4¢	40.32	Mar 4
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?	BUY	1.8¢	111.111	Mar 4
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March?	BUY	1.1¢	457.052	Mar 4
Will Turkey strike Iran by March 31?	BUY	12.4¢	80.598	Mar 4
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	BUY	37.0¢	10.811	Mar 4
US strikes Iraq by February 28?	BUY	0.1¢	1,000	Mar 4
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 5?	BUY	14.5¢	68.966	Mar 4
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March?	BUY	3.4¢	148.401	Mar 4
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?	BUY	15.0¢	33.333	Mar 4
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	BUY	2.0¢	150	Mar 4
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 31?	BUY	11.0¢	45.455	Mar 4
Will Ali Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	BUY	3.7¢	133.609	Mar 4
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	BUY	2.0¢	250	Mar 4
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March?	BUY	1.6¢	312.5	Mar 4
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	BUY	3.0¢	166.667	Mar 4

Odds DistributionContrarian / Long-Shot Hunter

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

← Long ShotsSafe Bets →

Quantitative Edge Profile

Developing30.9

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)1.70

Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)28.1%

Win Consistency49.0%

Profit Factor0.80

Drawdown Resilience0.65

Conviction Sizing (Kelly)0.65

Weekly Sharpe est.0.49

Trading Activity95 trades · 10 active days

P&L Calendar

$1,0330d profit10d loss

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue