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0xb71921...866bba

0xb71921...866bba
Smart Score
68
Win Rate
16.2%
Total P&L
+$264
Trade Count
104
Sharpe Ratio
4.13
Sortino Ratio
200.56
Max Drawdown
5.8%
ROI
74.7%
Profit Factor
2.83
Kelly Fraction
0.105
R² (Curve Fit)
—
Smart Score
068.2/100100

Recent Trades

MarketSidePriceSizeTime
US forces enter Iran by March 7?BUY16.4¢7.3Mar 5
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?BUY62.0¢1.92Mar 5
US forces enter Iran by December 31?BUY41.0¢2.86Mar 5
US forces enter Iran by March 7?SELL72.0¢1.96Mar 5
US forces enter Iran by March 7?BUY60.0¢1.96Mar 5
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?BUY68.0¢1.75Mar 4
US forces enter Iran by March 31?BUY64.0¢1.86Mar 4
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 4?BUY0.6¢196.07Mar 4
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?BUY20.0¢5.88Mar 4
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?BUY32.0¢3.79Mar 4
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?BUY57.0¢2.06Mar 4
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?BUY39.0¢3.09Mar 4
Solana Up or Down - March 4, 7:25PM-7:30PM ETBUY28.0¢4.45Mar 4
Ethereum Up or Down - March 4, 7:25PM-7:30PM ETBUY27.0¢5.44Mar 4
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -5°C on March 2?BUY8.0¢62.5Mar 2
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -5°C on March 2?BUY4.0¢25Mar 2
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 44-45°F on March 2?BUY3.0¢100Mar 2
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 42-43°F on March 2?BUY2.1¢140.437Mar 2
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 42-43°F on March 2?BUY1.8¢55.556Mar 2
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 42-43°F on March 2?BUY2.3¢43.478Mar 2

Analytics

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Odds DistributionContrarian / Long-Shot Hunter

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

100%75%50%25%60%< 10%10%10–20%11%20–30%11%30–50%7%50–70%70–80%80–90%> 90%
← Long ShotsSafe Bets →
Quantitative Edge Profile
Active68.2

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)3.75
Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)62.1%
Win Consistency60.5%
Profit Factor1.77
Drawdown Resilience1.43
Conviction Sizing (Kelly)1.43
Weekly Sharpe est.1.09
Trading Activity104 trades · 6 active days
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P&L Calendar
$631d profit5d loss
MarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarMoWeFrSuLossProfit

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue

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