0xbc115d...34e562

Smart Score

Win Rate

74.3%

Total P&L

+$3

Trade Count

173

Sharpe Ratio

-0.16

Sortino Ratio

-0.24

Max Drawdown

2281.4%

ROI

1.0%

Profit Factor

1.10

Kelly Fraction

0.066

R² (Curve Fit)

—

Smart Score

012/100100

Recent Trades

Market	Side	Price	Size	Time
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on March 5?	BUY	85.0¢	7.059	Mar 5
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on March 5?	BUY	86.0¢	6.977	Mar 5
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on March 5?	BUY	98.9¢	6.067	Mar 4
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 34°C on March 4?	SELL	99.9¢	6.66	Mar 4
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on March 4?	SELL	99.9¢	6.18	Mar 4
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on March 5?	BUY	99.9¢	6.006	Mar 4
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on March 5?	BUY	92.0¢	6.522	Mar 4
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on March 4?	BUY	97.0¢	6.186	Mar 4
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C on March 5?	BUY	38.0¢	5.263	Mar 4
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -3°C or below on March 5?	SELL	0.3¢	299.99	Mar 4
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 34°C on March 4?	BUY	90.0¢	6.667	Mar 4
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 4?	BUY	92.7¢	6.472	Mar 4
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -3°C or below on March 5?	BUY	0.7¢	299.995	Mar 4
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?	SELL	89.0¢	1.12	Mar 4
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?	SELL	97.8¢	1.02	Mar 4
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026?	SELL	97.7¢	1.02	Mar 4
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	SELL	88.6¢	1.12	Mar 4
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	SELL	99.8¢	1.04	Mar 4
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in February 2026?	SELL	97.0¢	2.1	Mar 4
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	SELL	99.8¢	2.14	Mar 4

Analytics

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Odds DistributionFavorite / High-Confidence

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

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Quantitative Edge Profile

Developing12

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)0.66

Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)10.9%

Win Consistency57.5%

Profit Factor0.31

Drawdown Resilience0.25

Conviction Sizing (Kelly)0.25

Weekly Sharpe est.0.19

Trading Activity173 trades · 15 active days

P&L Calendar

$1213d profit12d loss

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue

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