0xbt

0xaadbd2...be85f9

Smart Score

Win Rate

34.3%

Total P&L

+$4.8K

Trade Count

2,225

Sharpe Ratio

0.35

Sortino Ratio

1.50

Max Drawdown

422.6%

ROI

7.6%

Profit Factor

1.44

Kelly Fraction

0.104

R² (Curve Fit)

—

Smart Score

017.8/100100

Recent Trades

Market	Side	Price	Size	Time
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	BUY	32.0¢	156.131	Mar 5
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?	BUY	11.1¢	270.233	Mar 5
GPT-5.4 released by March 5?	SELL	94.0¢	184.03	Mar 5
GPT-5.4 released by March 9?	SELL	87.0¢	45.16	Mar 4
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	BUY	35.0¢	10.7	Mar 4
US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 31?	BUY	53.0¢	31	Mar 4
US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 31?	BUY	53.0¢	69	Mar 4
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	BUY	35.0¢	7.692	Mar 4
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	BUY	30.0¢	2.76	Mar 4
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	BUY	30.0¢	4.28	Mar 4
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	BUY	30.0¢	62.48	Mar 4
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	BUY	30.0¢	1.429	Mar 4
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	BUY	30.0¢	4.41	Mar 4
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	BUY	30.0¢	11.72	Mar 4
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	BUY	30.0¢	62.92	Mar 4
US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 31?	BUY	53.9¢	46.363	Mar 4
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	BUY	31.0¢	100	Mar 4
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	BUY	35.0¢	5	Mar 4
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	BUY	35.0¢	163.662	Mar 4
Will Claude go down 9-10 times in March?	BUY	17.0¢	5	Mar 4

Odds DistributionBalanced / Mid-Range

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

← Long ShotsSafe Bets →

Quantitative Edge Profile

Developing17.8

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)0.98

Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)16.2%

Win Consistency38.8%

Profit Factor0.46

Drawdown Resilience0.37

Conviction Sizing (Kelly)0.37

Weekly Sharpe est.0.28

Trading Activity2,225 trades · 87 active days

P&L Calendar

$5,82536d profit51d loss

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue