0xc02aba...3301aa

Smart Score

Win Rate

39.6%

Total P&L

+$81

Trade Count

Sharpe Ratio

0.39

Sortino Ratio

9.93

Max Drawdown

174.5%

ROI

5.6%

Profit Factor

1.43

Kelly Fraction

0.119

R² (Curve Fit)

—

Smart Score

026.8/100100

Recent Trades

Market	Side	Price	Size	Time
Will Turkey strike Iran by March 31?	SELL	12.6¢	61.44	Mar 5
Will Germany strike Iran by March 31?	SELL	5.4¢	29.2	Mar 4
Will France strike Iran by March 31?	SELL	5.4¢	12.42	Mar 4
Will Turkey strike Iran by March 31?	BUY	17.3¢	17.341	Mar 4
Will France strike Iran by March 31?	BUY	16.1¢	12.422	Mar 4
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	BUY	5.0¢	20	Mar 3
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	BUY	13.9¢	7.194	Mar 3
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	BUY	34.9¢	5.731	Mar 3
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	BUY	53.0¢	5.66	Mar 3
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	BUY	22.0¢	9.091	Mar 2
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	BUY	0.9¢	111.111	Mar 2
Will Germany strike Iran by March 31?	BUY	6.8¢	29.203	Mar 2
Will Turkey strike Iran by March 31?	BUY	4.5¢	44.107	Mar 1
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?	BUY	33.0¢	30.294	Feb 27
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?	SELL	9.0¢	58.82	Feb 26
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?	SELL	1.3¢	142.85	Feb 21
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?	SELL	15.7¢	64.47	Feb 18
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?	SELL	7.0¢	166.66	Feb 18
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?	BUY	34.0¢	58.824	Feb 18
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?	BUY	7.0¢	142.857	Feb 18

Odds DistributionContrarian / Long-Shot Hunter

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

← Long ShotsSafe Bets →

Quantitative Edge Profile

Developing26.8

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)1.47

Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)24.4%

Win Consistency39.6%

Profit Factor0.70

Drawdown Resilience0.56

Conviction Sizing (Kelly)0.56

Weekly Sharpe est.0.43

Trading Activity86 trades · 43 active days

P&L Calendar

$24013d profit30d loss

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue