0xc03fd7...c1249d

Smart Score

Win Rate

73.5%

Total P&L

+$2.4K

Trade Count

3,994

Sharpe Ratio

-2.09

Sortino Ratio

-6.68

Max Drawdown

7117.5%

ROI

1.2%

Profit Factor

1.70

Kelly Fraction

0.302

R² (Curve Fit)

—

Smart Score

010.9/100100

Recent Trades

Market	Side	Price	Size	Time
Houthi strike on Israel by March 6, 2026?	SELL	94.0¢	100	Mar 5
Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch?	SELL	44.9¢	160	Mar 5
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	BUY	80.0¢	20	Mar 5
US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 31?	SELL	52.0¢	11.32	Mar 5
Will Iran strike Israel on March 5?	SELL	92.0¢	50	Mar 5
Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch?	BUY	44.0¢	119.81	Mar 5
Will Iran strike Israel on March 5?	BUY	90.0¢	50	Mar 5
Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch?	SELL	53.0¢	48.68	Mar 5
Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch?	BUY	47.0¢	40.188	Mar 5
Houthi strike on Israel by March 6, 2026?	BUY	92.0¢	100	Mar 5
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15?	SELL	94.0¢	128	Mar 5
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15?	BUY	94.0¢	150.568	Mar 5
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?	BUY	84.0¢	200	Mar 5
Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch?	SELL	53.0¢	111.318	Mar 5
Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch?	BUY	53.0¢	160	Mar 5
Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch?	SELL	96.9¢	160	Mar 5
Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch?	SELL	45.5¢	247.63	Mar 5
US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 31?	SELL	53.0¢	188.679	Mar 5
Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch?	BUY	43.1¢	160	Mar 5
Pakistan x Afghanistan ceasefire by March 31?	SELL	69.0¢	13.67	Mar 5

Odds DistributionBalanced / Mid-Range

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

← Long ShotsSafe Bets →

Quantitative Edge Profile

Developing10.9

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)0.60

Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)9.9%

Win Consistency26.0%

Profit Factor0.28

Drawdown Resilience0.23

Conviction Sizing (Kelly)0.23

Weekly Sharpe est.0.17

Trading Activity3,994 trades · 5 active days

P&L Calendar

$12,7130d profit5d loss

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue