0xc04e75...e7718b

Smart Score

Win Rate

59.0%

Total P&L

+$3.0K

Trade Count

111

Sharpe Ratio

-2.48

Sortino Ratio

-3.61

Max Drawdown

1882.7%

ROI

109.3%

Profit Factor

28.54

Kelly Fraction

0.569

R² (Curve Fit)

—

Smart Score

027.2/100100

Recent Trades

Market	Side	Price	Size	Time
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	BUY	39.0¢	18.282	Mar 5
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	SELL	78.0¢	9.13	Mar 5
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 10, 2026?	BUY	94.0¢	87.713	Mar 4
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	BUY	73.0¢	9.123	Mar 4
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?	SELL	54.0¢	12.33	Mar 4
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 8, 2026?	BUY	95.0¢	55.042	Mar 4
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	BUY	40.0¢	37.5	Mar 4
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by March 31?	SELL	25.4¢	22.46	Mar 4
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 9, 2026?	BUY	91.0¢	164.835	Mar 4
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 5, 2026?	SELL	99.2¢	213.27	Mar 4
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 5, 2026?	BUY	99.3¢	92.27	Mar 4
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?	BUY	77.0¢	12.338	Mar 3
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	BUY	0.1¢	1,000	Mar 3
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	BUY	0.2¢	1,000	Mar 3
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by March 31?	BUY	22.3¢	22.462	Mar 2
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	SELL	37.0¢	27.77	Mar 2
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	BUY	36.0¢	27.778	Mar 2
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	SELL	62.0¢	27.79	Mar 2
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	BUY	66.0¢	15.273	Mar 2
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 3, 2026?	SELL	99.0¢	10.18	Mar 2

Odds DistributionBalanced / Mid-Range

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

← Long ShotsSafe Bets →

Quantitative Edge Profile

Developing27.2

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)1.50

Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)24.8%

Win Consistency46.5%

Profit Factor0.71

Drawdown Resilience0.57

Conviction Sizing (Kelly)0.57

Weekly Sharpe est.0.44

Trading Activity111 trades · 25 active days

P&L Calendar

$8505d profit17d loss

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue