0xc3391f...1b993d

Smart Score

Win Rate

72.7%

Total P&L

+$252

Trade Count

Sharpe Ratio

-0.18

Sortino Ratio

-0.18

Max Drawdown

394.3%

ROI

66.3%

Profit Factor

331.94

Kelly Fraction

0.725

R² (Curve Fit)

—

Smart Score

033.3/100100

Recent Trades

Market	Side	Price	Size	Time
Will Iran strike Israel on March 5?	BUY	60.0¢	1.667	Mar 5
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 5?	BUY	59.0¢	1.695	Mar 5
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 5?	BUY	61.0¢	1.639	Mar 5
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?	BUY	89.0¢	1.124	Mar 5
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	BUY	19.0¢	5.263	Mar 5
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	BUY	65.0¢	1.538	Mar 5
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	BUY	64.0¢	1.563	Mar 5
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	BUY	69.4¢	263.843	Feb 28
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	BUY	18.0¢	10	Feb 27
US strikes Iran by March 14, 2026?	BUY	55.0¢	10	Feb 27
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?	SELL	4.8¢	100	Feb 27
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?	BUY	4.9¢	100	Feb 27
US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026?	BUY	37.0¢	13.3	Feb 27
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?	SELL	5.2¢	100	Feb 27
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?	BUY	4.7¢	100	Feb 27
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?	SELL	5.0¢	200	Feb 27
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?	BUY	4.6¢	100	Feb 27
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?	BUY	4.8¢	100	Feb 27
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?	SELL	24.0¢	150	Feb 27
US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?	BUY	33.0¢	100	Feb 22

Odds DistributionBalanced / Mid-Range

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

← Long ShotsSafe Bets →

Quantitative Edge Profile

Developing33.3

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)1.83

Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)30.3%

Win Consistency63.6%

Profit Factor0.87

Drawdown Resilience0.70

Conviction Sizing (Kelly)0.70

Weekly Sharpe est.0.53

Trading Activity25 trades · 5 active days

P&L Calendar

$2691d profit4d loss

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue