0xc526e0...25bf92

Smart Score

Win Rate

24.9%

Total P&L

+$1.9K

Trade Count

305

Sharpe Ratio

0.46

Sortino Ratio

18.95

Max Drawdown

35.9%

ROI

13.2%

Profit Factor

1.24

Kelly Fraction

0.049

R² (Curve Fit)

—

Smart Score

048.3/100100

Recent Trades

Market	Side	Price	Size	Time
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be László Toroczkai?	SELL	0.4¢	1,000	Jan 16
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Klára Dobrev?	SELL	0.1¢	1,903.86	Jan 16
Will Palantir (PLTR) close at <$168 on the final day of trading of the week of Jan 12 – Jan 16?	SELL	0.9¢	2.04	Jan 16
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $500-$510 on the final day of trading of the week of Jan 12 – Jan 16?	SELL	0.1¢	2.04	Jan 16
Wizards vs. Suns	BUY	6.0¢	833.333	Jan 11
Heat vs. Thunder	BUY	21.0¢	190.476	Jan 11
Heat vs. Thunder	BUY	21.0¢	190.476	Jan 11
49ers vs. Eagles	SELL	99.9¢	219.34	Jan 11
Heat vs. Thunder	BUY	15.0¢	132	Jan 11
Nets vs. Grizzlies	BUY	30.0¢	26.667	Jan 11
Pelicans vs. Magic	BUY	30.0¢	26.667	Jan 11
Heat vs. Thunder	BUY	15.0¢	33.333	Jan 11
Will FC Bayern München vs. VfL Wolfsburg end in a draw?	BUY	11.0¢	227.273	Jan 11
49ers vs. Eagles	SELL	30.0¢	219.34	Jan 11
49ers vs. Eagles	BUY	31.0¢	438.677	Jan 11
Rams vs. Panthers	BUY	17.0¢	588.235	Jan 10
Rams vs. Panthers	SELL	17.0¢	1,222.22	Jan 10
Will the highest temperature in London be 3°C on January 10?	SELL	0.2¢	102.04	Jan 10
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?	SELL	0.2¢	500	Jan 10
Meta (META) Up or Down on January 12?	SELL	33.0¢	11.46	Jan 10

Odds DistributionContrarian / Long-Shot Hunter

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

← Long ShotsSafe Bets →

Quantitative Edge Profile

Developing48.3

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)2.66

Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)44.0%

Win Consistency48.0%

Profit Factor1.26

Drawdown Resilience1.01

Conviction Sizing (Kelly)1.01

Weekly Sharpe est.0.77

Trading Activity305 trades · 37 active days

P&L Calendar

$10,0334d profit33d loss

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue