0xd08e8f...2a2f7c

Smart Score

Win Rate

29.4%

Total P&L

+$39.8K

Trade Count

874

Sharpe Ratio

0.11

Sortino Ratio

17.46

Max Drawdown

1017.1%

ROI

19.6%

Profit Factor

4.16

Kelly Fraction

0.224

R² (Curve Fit)

—

Smart Score

033.7/100100

Recent Trades

Market	Side	Price	Size	Time
US forces enter Iran by March 7?	BUY	10.0¢	50	Mar 4
US forces enter Iran by March 7?	BUY	11.7¢	426.532	Mar 4
Iran coup attempt by June 30?	BUY	36.0¢	1,111.111	Mar 4
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	BUY	29.1¢	245.664	Mar 4
US forces enter Iran by March 7?	SELL	5.0¢	1,428.57	Mar 4
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	BUY	64.4¢	118.529	Mar 3
Will Hezbollah disarm by March 31?	SELL	7.0¢	1,089.12	Mar 3
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	BUY	65.9¢	876.217	Mar 3
Will US or Israel strike Iran first?	SELL	50.0¢	833.47	Mar 3
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	BUY	60.5¢	135.5	Mar 3
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by March 31?	SELL	27.3¢	588.27	Mar 3
Houthi strike on Israel by March 6, 2026?	SELL	15.0¢	440.38	Mar 3
Will Israel strike Gaza on March 3, 2026?	SELL	3.1¢	508.59	Mar 3
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	BUY	65.5¢	827.411	Mar 3
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?	SELL	23.0¢	2,355.4	Mar 3
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	BUY	60.0¢	784.795	Mar 3
Will US or Israel strike Iran first?	SELL	50.1¢	939.86	Mar 3
Houthi strike on Israel by March 6, 2026?	BUY	18.0¢	440.389	Mar 3
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?	BUY	11.0¢	454.4	Mar 3
Will Israel strike Gaza on March 2, 2026?	SELL	0.6¢	239.74	Mar 2

Odds DistributionBalanced / Mid-Range

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

← Long ShotsSafe Bets →

Quantitative Edge Profile

Developing33.7

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)1.85

Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)30.7%

Win Consistency31.5%

Profit Factor0.88

Drawdown Resilience0.71

Conviction Sizing (Kelly)0.71

Weekly Sharpe est.0.54

Trading Activity874 trades · 108 active days

P&L Calendar

+$11,86634d profit69d loss

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue