0xd2a4f4...fc796f

Smart Score

Win Rate

21.4%

Total P&L

-$50

Trade Count

225

Sharpe Ratio

-0.99

Sortino Ratio

-3.58

Max Drawdown

569.2%

ROI

-3.0%

Profit Factor

0.85

Kelly Fraction

0.000

R² (Curve Fit)

—

Smart Score

02.9/100100

Recent Trades

Market	Side	Price	Size	Time
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 5?	SELL	74.2¢	25.64	Mar 5
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 5?	BUY	78.0¢	25.641	Mar 5
Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	BUY	2.2¢	452.271	Mar 4
Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	BUY	1.7¢	10	Mar 4
US forces enter Iran by March 3?	BUY	1.5¢	404.82	Mar 3
US forces enter Iran by March 14?	SELL	24.0¢	90.9	Mar 3
Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	BUY	7.3¢	205.565	Mar 3
US forces enter Iran by March 14?	BUY	11.0¢	90.909	Mar 2
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	BUY	16.3¢	306.748	Mar 2
Will Iran hold a presidential election by June 30?	BUY	14.0¢	142.857	Mar 2
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	SELL	47.3¢	47.65	Mar 1
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	BUY	42.0¢	47.655	Mar 1
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	SELL	18.0¢	103.44	Mar 1
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	BUY	29.0¢	103.448	Mar 1
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	SELL	61.8¢	52.49	Feb 28
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	BUY	38.1¢	52.493	Feb 28
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	SELL	73.0¢	38.46	Feb 28
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	SELL	40.5¢	186.91	Feb 28
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	BUY	52.0¢	38.462	Feb 28
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	BUY	10.7¢	186.916	Feb 28

Odds DistributionContrarian / Long-Shot Hunter

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

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Quantitative Edge Profile

Developing2.9

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)0.16

Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)2.6%

Win Consistency20.9%

Profit Factor0.08

Drawdown Resilience0.06

Conviction Sizing (Kelly)0.06

Weekly Sharpe est.0.05

Trading Activity225 trades · 32 active days

P&L Calendar

$29210d profit19d loss

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue