0xd2bf33...20a502

Smart Score

Win Rate

70.0%

Total P&L

+$197

Trade Count

Sharpe Ratio

-0.15

Sortino Ratio

-0.21

Max Drawdown

563.4%

ROI

2.9%

Profit Factor

1.22

Kelly Fraction

0.126

R² (Curve Fit)

—

Smart Score

011.5/100100

Recent Trades

Market	Side	Price	Size	Time
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	SELL	94.1¢	2.3	Mar 5
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	BUY	5.9¢	1,068.433	Mar 5
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	SELL	5.9¢	1,070.74	Mar 5
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	SELL	96.1¢	27.34	Mar 4
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	BUY	3.9¢	1,040	Mar 4
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	SELL	3.8¢	1,067.34	Mar 4
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 1PM ET	BUY	50.0¢	220.92	Jan 25
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 1PM ET	BUY	50.0¢	207.16	Jan 25
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 6AM ET	BUY	51.0¢	140.137	Jan 10
Ethereum Up or Down - December 30, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET	BUY	50.9¢	396.039	Dec 30
Ethereum Up or Down - December 27, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET	BUY	50.8¢	159.686	Dec 27
Ethereum Up or Down - December 6, 8AM ET	BUY	51.0¢	366.353	Dec 6
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	BUY	76.0¢	127.211	Nov 3
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 6AM ET	BUY	51.0¢	178.765	Oct 24
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET	BUY	51.7¢	63.654	Oct 14
Ethereum Up or Down - October 14, 5PM ET	BUY	53.6¢	1,281.315	Oct 14
Will inflation reach more than 10% in 2025?	SELL	97.2¢	15.84	Sep 8
Will inflation reach more than 10% in 2025?	BUY	97.7¢	15.844	Sep 8
Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 10% and 11% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?	BUY	0.1¢	1,500	Jul 12
Will Romuald Starosielec be the next President of Poland?	SELL	99.6¢	17.04	Jan 10

Odds DistributionBalanced / Mid-Range

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

← Long ShotsSafe Bets →

Quantitative Edge Profile

Developing11.5

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)0.63

Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)10.5%

Win Consistency44.8%

Profit Factor0.30

Drawdown Resilience0.24

Conviction Sizing (Kelly)0.24

Weekly Sharpe est.0.18

Trading Activity19 trades · 12 active days

P&L Calendar

$1,6352d profit10d loss

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue