0xd2de8b...2c099b

Smart Score

Win Rate

57.3%

Total P&L

+$132

Trade Count

150

Sharpe Ratio

0.62

Sortino Ratio

1.44

Max Drawdown

1462.7%

ROI

9.7%

Profit Factor

2.50

Kelly Fraction

0.344

R² (Curve Fit)

—

Smart Score

025.9/100100

Recent Trades

Market	Side	Price	Size	Time
US forces enter Iran by March 7?	SELL	87.8¢	120.27	Mar 5
US forces enter Iran by March 7?	BUY	84.0¢	120.274	Mar 5
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by March 31?	SELL	98.0¢	1.06	Mar 5
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?	BUY	90.7¢	4.851	Mar 4
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?	BUY	94.5¢	1.058	Mar 4
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?	BUY	58.0¢	8.621	Mar 4
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?	BUY	75.0¢	1.333	Mar 3
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be László Toroczkai?	BUY	98.8¢	1.012	Mar 3
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	BUY	64.0¢	39.063	Mar 3
Any country withdraws from EU before 2027?	BUY	95.0¢	1.053	Mar 3
Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by March 31?	BUY	79.0¢	1.266	Mar 3
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?	BUY	82.0¢	1.22	Mar 3
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026?	BUY	90.0¢	1.111	Mar 3
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?	BUY	44.0¢	2.273	Mar 3
Ukraine election called by March 31, 2026?	BUY	97.5¢	1.026	Mar 3
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?	BUY	82.0¢	1.22	Mar 3
NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine in June 30, 2026?	BUY	94.8¢	5.274	Mar 3
Israel strike on Damascus by March 31, 2026?	BUY	89.9¢	1.112	Mar 3
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?	BUY	94.0¢	1.064	Mar 3
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by March 31?	BUY	93.7¢	1.067	Mar 3

Odds DistributionFavorite / High-Confidence

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

← Long ShotsSafe Bets →

Quantitative Edge Profile

Developing25.9

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)1.42

Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)23.6%

Win Consistency59.0%

Profit Factor0.67

Drawdown Resilience0.54

Conviction Sizing (Kelly)0.54

Weekly Sharpe est.0.41

Trading Activity150 trades · 29 active days

P&L Calendar

$3824d profit20d loss

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue