0xd3d73a...5edef8

Smart Score

Win Rate

38.3%

Total P&L

+$166

Trade Count

149

Sharpe Ratio

0.04

Sortino Ratio

0.09

Max Drawdown

90.5%

ROI

4.9%

Profit Factor

1.15

Kelly Fraction

0.050

R² (Curve Fit)

—

Smart Score

09.5/100100

Recent Trades

Market	Side	Price	Size	Time
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C or higher on March 5?	BUY	96.0¢	12.1	Mar 5
Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch?	SELL	45.7¢	14	Mar 5
Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch?	SELL	95.7¢	5.5	Mar 5
Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch?	BUY	89.0¢	5.5	Feb 24
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026?	BUY	4.6¢	530	Feb 21
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026?	SELL	11.0¢	200	Feb 21
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026?	BUY	15.0¢	200	Feb 20
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026?	BUY	5.7¢	100	Feb 20
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026?	BUY	1.3¢	2,000	Feb 20
US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026?	SELL	99.7¢	69.5	Feb 18
US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026?	BUY	97.7¢	69.5	Feb 18
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?	BUY	1.0¢	500	Feb 17
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?	BUY	2.3¢	342.1	Feb 17
US strikes Iran by February 12, 2026?	SELL	99.9¢	80.6	Feb 12
US strikes Iran by February 12, 2026?	BUY	99.5¢	80.6	Feb 12
US strikes Iran by February 11, 2026?	SELL	99.9¢	80.3	Feb 11
US strikes Iran by February 11, 2026?	BUY	99.7¢	80.3	Feb 11
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on February 10?	SELL	99.9¢	80.17	Feb 10
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on February 10?	BUY	36.0¢	6.7	Feb 10
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on February 10?	BUY	36.0¢	5	Feb 10

Analytics

Unlock full analytics on Accrue

Odds DistributionBalanced / Mid-Range

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

← Long ShotsSafe Bets →

Quantitative Edge Profile

Developing9.5

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)0.52

Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)8.6%

Win Consistency24.1%

Profit Factor0.25

Drawdown Resilience0.20

Conviction Sizing (Kelly)0.20

Weekly Sharpe est.0.15

Trading Activity123 trades · 17 active days

P&L Calendar

$7875d profit12d loss

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue

Unlock Full Analytics